on optimism and polls

the best news lately:
The latest opinion polls showed Mr. Bush apparently edging slightly ahead of Mr. Kerry, turning the dead heat of midweek into a lead of 2 to 3 percentage points; these results, however, fall within the surveys' margins of error.
But one poll, for The Washington Post, showed Mr. Kerry holding a 10-point lead, 53 to 43 percent, in 13 crucial battleground states that may decide the election.
nytimes

check out this opinion piece:
http://www.workingforchange.com/article.cfm?itemid=17880

Conventional wisdom suggests this year's presidential election will be close. Practically every poll taken has the race within the margin of error.

At the risk of looking like a fool, I am prepared to respectfully disagree with conventional wisdom to offer the following contrarian perspective: The election will not be close.

It difficult for me to believe the race is as close as the polls indicate, especially when one considers that 56 percent of the electorate feels the country is headed in the wrong direction. Moreover, it has been 16 months since 50 percent felt we were headed in the right direction.

here's something else to make you smile.
i got this from another blog http://www.livejournal.com/users/dabrooklyn/

he writes: "There's a profile of political pollster John Zogby in the 10/18/04 issue of The New Yorker. I wish I could copy and paste the whole article for you or at least link to it, but I'm afraid it's not online at their website. However, I will transcribe one paragraph from "The Pollster" for you. The reporter is quoting Zogby, who was giving a talk to a convention of road builders in Boston, last month. Here you go:
"How do I get a handle on this election or any other?" he asked the road builders. "I asked one question the Saturday before the election in 2000. I called my call center in Utica and said, 'Put this in the poll: "You live in the land of Oz, and the candidates are the Tin Man, who's all brains and no heart, and the Scarecrow, who's all heart and no brains. Who would you vote for?"' The next day, I called Utica and said, 'Whaddya got?' They said, 'Well, we've got Gore--," I said, 'I don't care about Gore. What's Oz?' It was 46.2 for the Tin Man and 46.2 for the Scarecrow. It was right there that I knew I wasn't going to know what was going to happen. But I asked thisis question again two weeks ago and the Tin Man led by ten points.
From page 86 of "The Pollster" in the 10/18/04 issue of The New Yorker.