10.29.2004

david kay speaks

from Josh Marshall's blog, which goes on in further detail, noting how this clear statement was twisted on CNN this morning. Check out his reporting here.

David Kay (remember that guy?) was on Newsnight last night, talking about the videotapes shot by embedded reporters with the 101st Airborne, which clearly show large quantities of the explosives in question at al Qaqaa as late as April 18th, 2003. They even have footage of the IAEA seal being clipped off the warehouses as they're going in. The host of the show, Aaron Brown, asked if the debate about when the explosives went missing was over. Here is what Kay said :

"Well, at least with regard to this one bunker, and the film shows one seal, one bunker, one group of soldiers going through, and there were others there that were sealed. With this one, I think it is game, set, and match. There was HMX, RDX in there. The seal was broken. And quite frankly, to me the most frightening thing is not only was the seal broken, lock broken, but the soldiers left after opening it up. I mean, to rephrase the so-called pottery barn rule. If you open an arms bunker, you own it. You have to provide security. "

the bulge: story still won't die!

salon.com story today:
By Kevin Berger

NASA photo analyst: Bush wore a device during debate
Physicist says imaging techniques prove the president's bulge was not caused by wrinkled clothing.

George W. Bush tried to laugh off the bulge. "I don't know what that is," he said on "Good Morning America" on Wednesday, referring to the infamous protrusion beneath his jacket during the presidential debates. "I'm embarrassed to say it's a poorly tailored shirt."

Dr. Robert M. Nelson, however, was not laughing. He knew the president was not telling the truth. And Nelson is neither conspiracy theorist nor midnight blogger. He's a senior research scientist for NASA and for Caltech's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and an international authority on image analysis. Currently he's engrossed in analyzing digital photos of Saturn's moon Titan, determining its shape, whether it contains craters or canyons.

For the past week, while at home, using his own computers, and off the clock at Caltech and NASA, Nelson has been analyzing images of the president's back during the debates. A professional physicist and photo analyst for more than 30 years, he speaks earnestly and thoughtfully about his subject. "I am willing to stake my scientific reputation to the statement that Bush was wearing something under his jacket during the debate," he says. "This is not about a bad suit. And there's no way the bulge can be described as a wrinkled shirt."

IRS attacking NAACP

the times reports this morning:

"The Internal Revenue Service has begun reviewing the tax-exempt status of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, citing concerns over a speech given by its chairman, Julian Bond, at its annual convention last July in Philadelphia.

In a letter dated Oct. 8 and released Thursday, the I.R.S. told the association it had received information that Mr. Bond conveyed "statements in opposition of
George W. Bush for the office of presidency" and specifically that he had "condemned the administration policies of George W. Bush in education, the economy and the war in Iraq."

The letter reminded the association that tax-exempt organizations are legally barred from supporting or opposing any candidate for elective office.
...
"This is an attempt to silence the N.A.A.C.P. on the very eve of a presidential election," he said. "We are best known for registering and turning out large numbers of African-American voters. Clearly, someone in the I.R.S. doesn't want that to happen."

10.28.2004

the ties that bind...

salon.com points us to this interesting development:

the lobbyist for Kaddafi, also previously a Bush admin. energy official, has coordinated Bush's latest 'endorsement' by Arab Americans. newsweek reports, in the story "Lobbying for Libya, And Bush."

"Oct. 28 - A last-minute endorsement of President George W. Bush by a hastily formed coalition of Arab-Americans was coordinated in part by a registered lobbyist for the Libyan regime of Col. Muammar Kaddafi -- a government formally branded by the State Department as a state sponsor of terrorism.
"Randa Fahmy Hudome, who just this month signed a $1.4 million contract to represent the Libyan government, served as a behind-the-scenes 'media consultant' helping to prepare this week's press release praising Bush’s record in promoting 'human rights, democracy and self-determination' in the Middle East, a chief organizer of the group told NEWSWEEK. ...
"Until last year, Hudome was a top Bush administration energy official, serving as chief aide on international issues to Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham. Her new role as Washington representative for the Kaddafi regime has raised eyebrows in Washington’s lobbying community -- both because of the lucrative size of her contract and her continued connections with the Bush campaign. Until President Bush lifted most economic sanctions against Libya this summer, citing its cooperation in giving up its nuclear program, it was illegal for Americans to have financial dealings with Libya -- or represent its government in Washington. ...

halliburton under fire, again (don't they ever learn?)

so, a whistle-blower has come forward! yay!

from the ap story:

FBI agents this week sought permission to interview Bunnatine Greenhouse, the Army Corps of Engineers' chief contracting officer who went public last weekend with allegations that her agency unfairly awarded KBR, a Halliburton subsidiary, no-bid contracts worth billions of dollars for work in Iraq, according to documents obtained by The Associated Press.

courtesy of dailykos.com Posted by Hello

photoshopped bush ad

you may have heard about this...the story seems to have legs. so, in one of the final bush commercials, there is a crowd shot of soldiers. the shot was doctored, and some of the individuals appear two and three times. apparently it was doctored to cover over bush standing at a podium. whatever. the funny thing is that the ad is called 'whatever it takes.' apparently that philosophy is quite appropriate.

kerry and the boss Posted by Hello

wow

kerry in madison. 100,000. bruce springsteen rocking the whole capitol area. people perched on houses to get a peek. pretty cool.

editorial endorsements

36 Papers Abandon Bush for Kerry
By Howard Kurtz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, October 27, 2004; Page A13

The Orlando Sentinel has backed every Republican seeking the White House since Richard M. Nixon in 1968. Not this time.

"This president has utterly failed to fulfill our expectations," the Florida paper said in supporting John F. Kerry, prompting some angry calls and a few dozen cancellations.

"A lot of people thought they could trust that the Sentinel would always go Republican, and when that didn't happen, they felt betrayed," said Jane Healy, the paper's editorial page editor.
The Sentinel is among 36 newspapers that endorsed President Bush four years ago and have flip-flopped, to coin a phrase, into Kerry's corner. These include the Chicago Sun-Times, the Los Angeles Daily News and the Memphis Commercial Appeal, according to industry magazine Editor & Publisher. Bush has won over only six papers that backed Al Gore, including the Denver Post, which received 700 letters -- all of them protesting the move.

rudy giuliani dissing the troops...

here's our not-so-beloved ex-mayor dissing US troops, so that he can exonerate the pres from all responsibility on al qaqaa

"The president was cautious, the president was prudent, the president did what a commander in chief should do. No matter how you try to blame it on the president the actual responsibility for it really would be for the troops that were there. Did they search carefully enough? Didn't they search carefully enough?"


on polls

Analysis of Major National Polls
By Alan Abramowitz

Here's where the presidential race stands right now based on an analysis of the most recent national polls conducted by 10 leading polling organizations. For this analysis I have excluded all partisan polls, internet polls, and robo-dial polls. That leaves out Democracy Corps, Harris, Economist/YouGov, and Rasmussen. Some of these polls, especially Democracy Corps [which shows Kerry ahead], are in my opinion very reputable, but for the sake of fairness I'm excluding them. Included in the analysis are the following polls: Gallup, CBS/New York Times, NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post, Zogby, Time, Newsweek, Pew, AP/Ipsos, and LA Times. All of these polls except Zogby report results for registered as well as likely voters.

Among likely voters, Bush was leading in 5 polls, Kerry in 2, and 3 were tied. The average level of support for the candidates was Bush 48.2, Kerry 47.0, Nader 1.3.

Among registered voters, Bush was leading in 3 polls, Kerry in 2, and 4 were tied. The average level of support for the candidates was Bush 47.0, Kerry 46.0, Nader 1.9.

It is clear from these results that heading into the final weekend of the campaign, the presidential race right now is extremely close. George Bush appears to hold a very slight lead nationally, but his support remains below the 50 percent level that is generally considered necessary for an incumbent since undecided voters generally break toward the challenger by a wide margin.

on the pot calling the kettle...

so, gwb had this tidbit yesterday:

"For a political candidate to jump to conclusions without knowing the facts is not a person you want as your commander in chief."

has the man NO sense of irony?

um, about those weapons we 'knew' hussein had? about those connections to al-qaeda? about our ability to 'win the peace' with a 'transformed' military? (thanks, rummy, for that one...)

minnesota news may have proof about al qaqaa

check out this story. looks like a local news station that was embedded with some troops might be able to verify that the explosives were in place after we invaded.

"Using GPS technology and talking with members of the 101st Airborne Division, 5 EYEWITNESS NEWS has determined the crew embedded with the troops may have been on the southern edge of the Al Qaqaa installation, where the ammunition disappeared. The news crew was based just south of Al Qaqaa, and drove two or three miles north of there with soldiers on April 18, 2003.
During that trip, members of the 101st Airborne Division showed the 5 EYEWITNESS NEWS news crew bunker after bunker of material labelled "explosives." Usually it took just the snap of a bolt cutter to get into the bunkers and see the material identified by the 101st as detonation cords."


you're telling me that we unlocked the bunkers and then left them there, open?

10.27.2004

bush supports civil unions--what??

ap story:
Bush Stance on Civil Unions Upsets Groups
SCOTT LINDLAW
Associated Press
WASHINGTON - Some conservative groups expressed dismay Tuesday over President Bush's tolerance of state-sanctioned civil unions between gay people - laws that would grant same-sex partners most or all the rights available to married couples.
"I don't think we should deny people rights to a civil union, a legal arrangement, if that's what a state chooses to do so," Bush said in an interview aired Tuesday on ABC. Bush acknowledged that his position put him at odds with the Republican platform, which opposes civil unions.

eminem video--watch it!

i posted this under "various ways of making a splash" but then i thought it was so important that i wanted to give it it's own post.

check it out!
eminem joins the fray in this kick-ass video: mosh

on momentum

the state tracking polls are swinging toward kerry. he's leading in likely and registered voter polls in most battleground states. kerry's ahead in florida, ohio and pennsylvania in the latest ARG poll. overall, polls show that he leads by about 5 in battleground states (some polls showing leading by 2, some showing leading by 9).

he's tied in half the national polls, some of which have overrepresentation of republicans in them (38% repubs, 30% dems. national percentage last election was 32% dems 30% repubs). in the last three days, he's been ahead by 1 or 2 points in the LA Times, Rasmussen, Harris, WashPost, Greenland polls. Behind in the Gallup, Newsweek. With registered voters only, he's tied in CBS and Newsweek polls.

subgroup analysis shows several patterns very favorable to the Kerry campaign (in gallup poll):
1. Kerry leads among independents by 5, 49-44.
2. Kerry leads among moderates by 18, 57-35.
3. Kerry leads in the battleground states by 2, 49-47, and Bush's approval rating in these same states has sunk to 46 percent.

african-american vote for kerry is at 90%. check out the analysis on this, that refutes the current story that bush is getting 18% here.

early voters are out in force. new voters are rocking the world. two million new voters in florida alone. new voters favor kerry about 60-40.

37% of dems believe this is the most important election of their lifetime; 27% repubs

kerry outpaces bush in final month spending. 527s are kicking ass in organizing at the street level.

we've become competitive in states we had written off: nevada, arkansas, colorado, west virginia, virginia.

and we are in the last stretch. and bush is on the defensive about the missing weapons, the leaked proposal to request another $75 billion for Iraq, and the massacre of Iraqi national guardsman. number of words he said yesterday about the missing weapons? Zero.

on the good news that mary cheney can be cured

so...where's the outrage from all the pro-gay repubs?

open letter to the Cheneys

Excerpts:
I am saddened by the outrageous behavior of Sens. Kerry and Edwards, who inexplicably and insensitively injected your daughter Mary's sexuality into the presidential debates.
I am the parent of a homosexual child and the executive director of Parents and Friends of Ex-Gays and Gays (PFOX), a national organization that offers support and education to families and friends of homosexuals, and advocates for the rights of ex-gays.
Mary is, I'm sure, a fine young woman with many wonderful qualities, and that is how she should be recognized. To label anyone solely by their sexuality is demeaning and inappropriate. As parents, we can and do love our children unconditionally no matter who they are attracted to. Loving unconditionally allows us the freedom to maintain our values and viewpoints while keeping a bridge open to our children.
Sen. Kerry deliberately misled the American public as well as people who have unwanted same-sex attractions when he stated that people are “born gay.” He should know better. ...

Homosexual activists like those working on the Kerry-Edwards team want "gay marriage" and civil unions in order to gain public affirmation. They think this will make them happy. Happiness requires hope, and real hope is the knowledge that many men and women overcome unwanted same-sex attractions every year, even those who believed at one time that they were born that way and had no choice.


bush's bulge--the story that won't die

from salon.com check out the photo.

Why is Bush outsourcing his bulge?
Forget the firestorm over stolen Iraqi explosives. The Bush Bulge continues to be the real talk of Washington. Today the president tried to lay it to rest once and for all on ABC's "Good Morning America," by confessing, "I'm embarrassed to say it's a poorly tailored shirt." This was a new version of an earlier blame-the-tailor line of defense offered by the Bush-Cheney campaign, which pointed the finger at a suit coat malfunction. The problem with this explanation, of course, is that the presidential tailor in question turned out to be French -- a man with the classically Gallic moniker, Georges de Paris. And that instantly raised a troubling question in red-state America: What the hell is red-blooded George W. Bush doing outsourcing his tailoring needs to some Frenchy named de Paris? Especially since de Paris' tony salon is obviously less skilled at producing a smooth-fitting jacket -- or shirt -- than any off-the-rack designer at Bloomingdale's?

The headache for the White House only got bigger when the Hill ran a photo of de Paris, who was revealed to be an eccentric-looking gnome of a fellow, with a shocking white cascade of curls that put one immediately in mind of, well, a French poodle. A miniature one. Unless the president enjoys being made to look like the Hunchback of Notre Dame (written by another Frenchman) by incompetent -- or perhaps malicious -- poodle-maned tailors, it's time for Bush to start shopping at no frills, all-American Men's Wearhouse.
-- David Talbot

on rehnquist--how serious is it?

the current conspiracy/question circulating: when did Bush learn about Rehnquist's cancer? he slipped when he spoke at a private luncheon a few weeks ago, saying that he was looking forward to being really active right after he's re-elected, installing a new judge 'in january, in the next year'.

from Salon.com

Medical experts: Rehnquist's condition could be severe
The Supreme Court's brief public announcement on Monday that Chief Justice William Rehnquist has been diagnosed with thyroid cancer, underwent a tracheotomy, and is expected to return to the bench on Nov. 1, likely masks the severity of his condition.

Numerous medical studies only mention tracheotomy -- in which surgeons cut a hole into a patient's windpipe to aid breathing -- as a treatment for a rare form of thyroid cancer called anaplastic carcinoma. According to the University of Virginia Health Center, "anaplastic carcinoma is an extremely serious and aggressive thyroid cancer which often results in the death of the patient … within several months of diagnosis."

Obviously, the news comes at the tense height of the presidential campaign, transforming the chief justice's health into a volatile political issue, one that presents a host of scenarios.
Located at the base of the neck and in front of the trachea, the thyroid gland produces hormones that control metabolism. Less severe forms of thyroid cancer are often arrested through radiation or surgically removing the entire gland. Performing a tracheotomy for thyroid cancer is so uncommon that Kenneth B. Ain, M.D., director of the Thyroid Oncology Program at the University of Kentucky Medical Center, speculates that when it comes to Chief Justice Rehnquist, "either the nature of the surgical procedure done was inaccurately reported or there are many things that have been left unsaid."

In fact, he adds, "It is extraordinarily rare that someone treated for thyroid cancer of any type would receive a tracheotomy at all, and even less common that it would constitute the only surgical procedure performed."

Other thyroid cancer specialists explain that in those rare times when a tracheotomy is performed, it's usually because the cancer has spread and poses an immediate threat to the patient's life. In some cases, the cancer nodules may be squeezing the windpipe, causing the patient to choke. The procedure may also be required after a thyroidectomy (the removal of the gland) and radiation treatments. A former endocrinologist at the University of California at San Francisco says that surgery or radiation can damage the laryngeal nerves that control the vocal cords, potentially causing the vocal cords to shut down and lead to respiratory arrest.

Regardless, the endocrinologist explains, performing a tracheotomy "suggests a very high-grade tumor or that cancer's been extensive and is not a single nodule but is throughout the gland."
Medical details that may shed light on Chief Justice Rehnquist's condition have not been forthcoming. The Naval Medical Center in Bethesda, where the chief justice received treatment, referred War Room to the Supreme Court, whose public information office did not return calls.
-- Kevin Berger

on crappy news

so, Al-Qaqaa. yep, it is what it sounds like. caca. as in cacapoopy.

the bush administration began yesterday trying to spin it that maybe the weapons were hidden before the us invaded, and that they were already gone when troops arrived. today's times shows that the us troops who were first at the storage facility did not look for the weapons. the commander of the unit didn't even know it was a sensitive site. does this not show us, people, that the UN and the IAEA inspectors knew what they were doing? i think bushco owes them a friggin apology. this site was highlighted as the most important site to guard in the us invasion. no one visited it to check for weapons for more than 7 weeks after the invasion. and bloggers are saying that removing 380 tons, which is about 3/4 of a million pounds, is more than "looting." it's not like guys were running out with a tv from circuit city. it probably took a lot of effort to move that much stuff. so why weren't we on top of it?

vote suppression. surprise! 60,000 absentee ballots missing in broward county.

on various ways of making a splash

eminem joins the fray in this kick-ass video: mosh

gotta laugh (and cringe) when you read 'get your war on'. latest strip is on the missing high explosives at Al Qaqaa.

doonesbury is always good for commentary

if you haven't seen it yet: jon stewart on crossfire


10.25.2004


kerry in minneapolis Posted by Hello

clinton in philadelphia 10/25 Posted by Hello

on spinning

so, andrea mitchell on msnbc said that 'hundreds' turned out to see clinton talk this afternoon in philadelphia. does this picture look like 'hundreds' to you?

the spin on clinton's appearance is that 'kerry doesn't inspire enthusiasm.'

tell that to the 30,000 who turned up in minneapolis.
oh yeah, and the boston red sox are up 2-0 in the world series.

a news roundup

quick recap:

massacre of iraqi national guard soldiers in Iraq. might have been 'inside job'

350 metric tons of highly explosive material is reported to have disappeared in Iraq. condi knew about it a month ago.

clinton stumps for kerry. GOP chairman Ed Gillespie says that Clinton's appearance is a sign of Kerry's weakness. Doesn't mention how Schwartzenegger is stumping for Bush in Ohio.

chief justice rehnquist has thyroid cancer. will keep working.

election polls: K/E up by 2 in latest Rasmussen poll. B/C up three in latest Zogby. Both likely voters.
newsweek says 46-46 (registered voters)
time says B/C up 51-46 (likely voters)
electoral-vote.com swings from blue to red each day, practically. CW among politics-obsessed Dems is that we will win, by a lot. they take into account that polls generally do not account for the massive voter registration drives, a large advantage among young voters and independents, the trend that undecideds usually break 2/3 for the challenger, and the trend that incumbents need to get over 50% job approval rating in order to win (bush's varies from 44% to 48% lately). i don't know. it's unpredictable, ultimately. kids in the 'weekly reader' poll have bush winning by a landslide 60-something to 30-something. and they've chosen the winner correctly since 1956. maybe those kids and the nickelodeon kids should duke it out.

endorsements: K/E get 25 endorsements by papers that endorsed Bush in 2000. Bush gets 2 that endorsed Gore.

GOP registers 3600 'vote challengers' in Ohio.

provisional ballots do not need to be counted in Ohio if they are submitted at the wrong precinct. ruling may also be reversed in Michigan.






on predictions

tired of consulting the contradictory polls? tired of listening to the talking heads?

now you can go to a better source, the magic 8 ball.

http://8ball.tridelphia.net/

10.22.2004

on chicanery

Some Voters Say Machines Failed, Incorrect Choices Appear on Screens from Daily Kos
Albuquerque Journal
By Jim LudwickJournal Staff Writer

Kim Griffith voted on Thursday— over and over and over. She's among the people in Bernalillo and Sandoval counties who say they have had trouble with early voting equipment. When they have tried to vote for a particular candidate, the touch-screen system has said they voted for somebody else.
It's a problem that can be fixed by the voters themselves— people can alter the selections on their ballots, up to the point when they indicate they are finished and officially cast the ballot. For Griffith, it took a lot of altering.
She went to Valle Del Norte Community Center in Albuquerque, planning to vote for John Kerry. "I pushed his name, but a green check mark appeared before President Bush's name," she said.

From Atrios
Election Fraud
In Ohio people are being called and told to vote at the wrong precinct, which explains their Secretary of State Blackwell's obsession with preventing people from using provisional ballots in the incorrect precinct.

People for the American Way tells us this incident (there's lots more, just click the link):
Most recently, controversy has erupted over the use in the Orlando area of armed, plainclothes officers from the Florida Department of Law Enforcement (FDLE) to question elderly black voters in their homes. The incidents were part of a state investigation of voting irregularities in the city's March 2003 mayoral election. Critics have charged that the tactics used by the FDLE have intimidated black voters, which could suppress their turnout in this year’s elections. Six members of Congress recently called on Attorney General John Ashcroft to investigate potential civil rights violations in the matter.

other things: i've heard about other dubious actions that seem to be getting squelched here and there. in Pennsylvania, there was a last minute effort to move 60-some poll locations that was organized by republicans. It was challenged, and the poll places will not be changed. And in Florida, one heavily African American county was allotted only one early-voting booth. There was an uproar, and now there will be four or six locations. If you hear of other stories, please let me know or report it to: People for the American Way, Telephone: 202-467-4999 or 800-326-7329 • pfaw@pfaw.org


10.21.2004

on reading critically...

daily kos hits the nail on the head

AP
AP Poll: Bush, Kerry in Dead Heat
[...] In the AP-Ipsos Public Affairs poll, the Democratic ticket of Kerry and Sen. John Edwards got support from 49 percent of those who said they were likely to vote, and the Republican team of Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney got 46 percent, within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Reuters
Reuters Poll: Bush Grabs One-Point Lead on Kerry
President Bush opened a slight one-point lead on Democratic rival John Kerry in a tight race for the White House, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Thursday.

So to recap, a three-point Kerry lead is a "dead-heat", but a one-point Bush lead is a "slight lead".

a little joke

What's the difference between Vietnam and Iraq?
Bush had a plan for getting out of Vietnam.

on the overseas vote

estimates say that there are about 500,000 overseas military votes, the majority of which will go to bush. then, there are another 1,000,000 overseas civilian votes. ready to play the 'how will they disenfranchise us now game?'

from salon.com
Oct. 21, 2004 BERLIN --
Susan Dzieduszycka-Suinat is pumped. Two weeks ago, sitting in an Internet cafe on Munich's Odeonplatz, the software marketer who crafted a hugely successful voter registration Web site, pulls up numbers that show a remarkable spike in Americans overseas mobilizing to defeat George W. Bush. Between her site and another out of Hong Kong, Democrats have registered 140,000 new voters, 40 percent of them from swing states -- and that is just the tip of the iceberg. Americans abroad, roused to a boiling fury by a Bush doctrine that has smeared America's good name across the globe, are looking like the "silent swing vote" in several key battleground states. Overseas registration for both parties is up by 400 percent over 2000; estimates put the tally of possible civilian votes as high as 2 million.

Then the panicked e-mails start flooding in. Today, less than two weeks before the tightest presidential race in memory, untold thousands of overseas voters still have not received their ballots -- and clearly won't be able to get them back in time. Late primaries and legal challenges to Ralph Nader's appearance on the ballot delayed mailings from half the battleground states. In swing states, including Florida, Ohio and New Mexico, different versions of the ballot have gone out, sowing wild confusion. In Pennsylvania alone, at least three versions were mailed overseas, in successive, chaotic waves -- with Nader and without him, plus a blank one-size-fits-all ballot with no names at all.

Activists now fear that huge numbers of Americans overseas -- both military and civilian -- may be as disenfranchised as they were in 2000, when anywhere from 10 to 40 percent of overseas ballots, depending on the county, just plain never showed up. But, far from helping civilians, the Federal Voting Assistance Program, has dragged its feet. A small liaison office based in the Pentagon, the FVAP provides voting materials to the departments of Defense and State for soldiers and civilians abroad and preaches overseas election law to thousands of local election officials back home.

on smacking down ohio's 'katherine harris'

Ok, so provisional balloting is one of the fronts where the legal war over the election will be fought. As part of the 2002 HAVA legislation (Help America Vote Act), all states were required to provide 'provisional ballots' to people trying to vote, whose names were not listed on the voting rolls. These provisional ballots are then checked by the county election authorities, and if the person is deemed eligible to vote, then the provisional ballot is counted. The intent of this act was to make sure that people are not disenfranchised in case of voter roll error, like what happened in Florida.

So, some states are balking at this, and interpreting the law very narrowly in order to restrict the number of provisional ballots that will be counted. They claim that provisional ballots should only be counted if the person shows up in the correct precinct--if a person is in the wrong precinct, but right municipality, the ballot should not be counted. A cynic would note here, with a fierce tone of voice, that 'we all know that when more people vote, democrats win.' And given the number of new voters, it is expected that many people will show up in the wrong precinct. Interestingly, the Dept of Justice filed a friend of the court brief in Michigan, arguing that Michigan should be free to use the strict interpretation. Go Ashcroft! Protecting our Civil Rights!

Now, this narrow interpretation of HAVA is being challenged in the courts. Here's where it stands in the most contested swing states: Florida, the State Supreme Court ruled that voters must be in the correct precinct. Michigan: provisional ballots cast in nearby precincts, as long as they are in the same municipality/county, must be counted--but only if voters are not directed to the correct precinct. And now Ohio, the judge has ruled that the votes must be counted.


(thanks to chicagoprogressive by way of the DailyKos for the following)

Secretary of state faulted in provisional-ballot case, accused of failing Ohio
Thursday, October 21, 2004
Mark Niquette
THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

U.S. District Judge James G. Carr in Toledo also suggested that Blackwell risked denying large numbers of Ohioans the right to vote on Nov. 2 and "apparently seeks to accomplish the same result in Ohio in 2004 that occurred in Florida in 2000."
While an appeals court decides the legal dispute over provisional ballots in Ohio, Carr wants Blackwell to give county election officials alternative instructions for the possible outcomes in the case so no time is lost once there's a ruling.
The judge even offered his own language for those guidelines, saying Blackwell can't be trusted to do so. "I cannot be confident . . . that Blackwell will, indeed, fulfill his obligation to this court, Ohio's election officials, and Ohio's voters," the judge wrote.

10.20.2004

on the intelligence of little people

now, you may know that incumbents usually receive about the same share of the vote as their last-polled approval ratings. yesterday, bush was at a dangerous low 44% (nytimes).

and the kids back this up.

from ap story:

Kid power! Democrat John Kerry is the winner, and the rest of the country should pay attention because the vote on Nickelodeon's Web site has correctly chosen the president of the United States in the past four elections.

Nearly 400,000 children and teens voted, and the results were released Wednesday. Kerry received 57 percent of the vote; President Bush
got 43 percent.

bizarre endorsements for bush

ap story:

Bush wins election endorsement — from Iran
FROM ASSOCIATED PRESS
TEHRAN, Iran — The head of Iran's security council said today the re-election of President George W. Bush would be in Tehran's best interests, despite the administration's axis of evil label, accusations Iran harbours Al Qaeda terrorists and threats of sanctions over the country's nuclear ambitions.
Historically, Democrats have harmed Iran more than Republicans, said Hasan Rowhani, head of the Supreme National Security Council, Iran's top security decision-making body.
"We haven't seen anything good from Democrats," Rowhani told state-run television in remarks that, for the first time in recent decades, saw Iran openly supporting one U.S. presidential candidate over another.
Though Iran generally does not publicly wade into U.S. presidential politics, it has a history of preferring Republicans over Democrats, who tend to press human rights issues.
(emphasis mine)


from salon.com
"Please, don't vote for our cousin!"
We thought we had already seen the most bizarre endorsement of the race -- but this one is right up there. Second cousins of George W. Bush, clearly selfless in their willingness to relinquish any chance of ever being invited to sleep in the Lincoln Bedroom or ride on Air Force One, as long as their cuz is president, have endorsed John Kerry and established a Web site: www.bushrelativesforkerry.com.

on casualties

bush is more deluded than we thought. Pat Robertson expressed concern about the war prior to the invasion of Iraq. He related the story to Paula Zahn:

"'And I warned him about this war. I had deep misgivings about this war, deep misgivings. And I was trying to say, Mr. President, you had better prepare the American people for casualties.' Robertson said the president then told him, 'Oh, no, we're not going to have any casualties.'"

salon.com

10.19.2004

on the power of boycotts

from salon.com

Sinclair stock in free-fall
Stock in the Sinclair Broadcasting Group continues to drop like a rock. Since the company announced its unprecedented move to air a one-sided hit piece on its 62 stations nationwide the eve of a presidential election (i.e. "Stolen Honor," the anti-Kerry documentary), Sinclair shares have plummeted from nearly $8 to $6.50, losing more than 20 percent of their value in just six trading days. The current value not only marks a 52-week low for the company's stock, but it's the lowest level since Feb, 2001, and comes dangerously close to surpassing the stock's five-year low. Sinclair's Republican stunt proves once again that mass communications and partisan politics don't always mix, especially with irate Democrats voicing their outrage over Sinclair's move and urging advertiser boycotts. As one Sinclair employee told Salon last week, "They have no idea what they've unleashed."

The picture for Sinclair shareholders is even more grim if they step back and look at what the stock was valued at just six months ago; $13. That was the last time Sinclair decided to use the public airwaves for blatantly political purposes, refusing its ABC affiliates from airing special "Nightline" during which the names of U.S. soldiers killed in Iraq were read off. Since then, the stock has lost nearly half its value. Of course if longtime Sinclair shareholders really want to gnash their teeth over the company's inept management, they can just think back to the glory days of 1995 when their $6.50 Sinclair stock was worth…$45.
-- Eric Boehlert

on civil liberties

from salon.com

"We didn't think it would be offensive"Our question is, why does the Bush-Cheney campaign assume people wearing shirts that say "Protect Our Civil Liberties" are opposed to the president's re-election? Would the campaign welcome guests as obvious Bush supporters if they're wearing shirts that say "Civil Liberties, Civil Schmiberties"?

Three Medford school teachers were threatened with arrest and escorted from the event after they showed up wearing T-shirts with the slogan "Protect our civil liberties." All three said they applied for and received valid tickets from Republican headquarters in Medford. "The women said they did not intend to protest. "I wanted to see if I would be able to make a statement that I feel is important, but not offensive, in a rally for my president," said Janet Voorhies, 48, a teacher in training.

"We chose this phrase specifically because we didn't think it would be offensive or degrading or obscene," said Tania Tong, 34, a special education teacher. Thursday's event in Oregon sets a new bar for a Bush/Cheney campaign that has taken extraordinary measures to screen the opinions of those who attend Bush and Cheney speeches. For months, the Bush/Cheney campaign has limited event access to those willing to volunteer in Bush/Cheney campaign offices. In recent weeks, the Bush/Cheney campaign has gone so far as to have those who voice dissenting viewpoints at their events arrested and charged as criminals."
-- Geraldine Sealey

10.18.2004

on speaking truthfully

wow. tim ryan (d) ohio is pretty cool. who knew? watch the little clip from his house speech about the draft.

http://www.mydd.com/files/admin/TimRyan_Medium.mov

on silence

i just saw that William Gibson, one of my favorite author/thinkers, is blogging. And here's his explanation of why he began his blog.

Why?
Because the United States currently has, as Jack Womack so succintly puts it, a president who makes Richard Nixon look like Abraham Lincoln.

And because, as the Spanish philospher Unamuno said, "At times, to be silent is to lie."

on vaccinations and responsibility

from americanprogress.com--today's progress report.

"We relied upon a company out of England."
- President Bush, explaining responsibility for the flu vaccine shortage, 10/14/04
VERSUS
"Chiron is a California-based company."
- Philadelphia Inquirer, 10/14/04

(i'd just like to add that if the administration had fessed up earlier that there was going to be a shortage, clinics and so forth could have organized their efforts better--instead of letting elderly folks wait outside in the sun and the cold, which has resulted in a heatstroke, hypothermia, and even a death from someone who fainted and hit their head. is this really an 'advanced' nation???)

FLU VACCINE
Bush's Blame Game
The vaccine shortage this winter means tens of millions of Americans will have to forgo a flu shot, including millions of those who need it most – the elderly, small children and pregnant women. In Michigan, for example, there are 3.4 million people considered a priority for a flu shot, but only 2 million total doses available. It didn't have to be this way. The Bush administration received warnings about the vaccination supply problem and could have taken steps to avert or diminish the problem. It didn't. Instead of taking responsibility for the crisis that resulted, the Bush administration has tried to deflect blame with a series of false, misleading and hypocritical statements. (And, for good measure, it has blamed John Kerry).

BUSH WARNED ABOUT VACCINE SUPPLY PROBLEM IN 2001: In May 2001, the General Accounting Office (GAO) issued a report concluding "a production delay or shortfall experienced by even one of the three remaining manufacturers can significantly impact overall vaccine availability." Specifically, the GAO expressed concern that, in the event of a shortage, "there is no mechanism currently in place to distribute flu vaccine to high-risk individuals before others." The report recommended robust cooperation between the federal government and the private sector to avoid future problems.

BUSH IGNORES THE PROBLEM 3+ YEARS: The GAO produced a follow-up report in September 2004, more than three years later. That report found "the number of producers remains limited, and the potential for manufacturing problems...is still present." Again, the GAO noted "there is no system in place to ensure that seniors and others at high risk for complications receive flu vaccinations first when vaccine is in short supply."

BUSH BLEW OPPORTUNITY TO SECURE ALTERNATIVE SUPPLIES: On Sept. 13, Chiron Corp. informed officials from the United States and England that there were unresolved contamination problems at its Liverpool, England, plant. The British government responded by contacting other manufacturers and securing alternative supplies. The Bush administration failed to act before all doses of the flu vaccine had been purchased.

BUSH ADMINISTRATION EXCUSE RINGS HOLLOW: FDA Acting Commissioner Lester M. Crawford suggests the United States could not find new supplies of the flu vaccine because they didn't know the Chiron plant would be closed until Oct. 5, by which time there was no more vaccine available. Crawford does not specifically deny, however, that the FDA knew there were unresolved contamination issues at the plant starting on Sept. 13.

BUSH WILL SAY ANYTHING TO AVOID RESPONSIBILITY: In an effort to avoid any responsibility for the problem, Bush said in the debate last Wednesday the United States had a flu vaccine shortage because "we relied upon a company out of England." But Chiron Corp. is a California company, subject to regulation by the U.S. government, which operates a factory in England. Bush also took credit for identifying the problem, saying "we took the right action and didn't allow contaminated medicine into our country." But it was the British government, not the Bush administration, that closed the factory and prevented the contaminated vaccines from entering the United States. The FDA inspected the plant in June 2003 and found contamination problems – but later announced that the problems had been fixed to its satisfaction.

HYPOCRITICAL RESPONSE – IMPORT VACCINES FROM CANADA: Asked about the vaccine shortage during the debate, Bush said "we're working with Canada to – hopefully they'll produce a – help us realize the vaccine necessary to make sure our citizens have got flu vaccinations." Apparently, Bush forgot that his administration has been working doggedly to prevent the reimportation of cheaper Canadian drugs at the behest of the pharmaceutical company, claiming they are unsafe. The next day, Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson got back on message, saying "getting more vaccine from Canada is unlikely."

DESPERATE RESPONSE – BLAME KERRY: According to Bush campaign Chairman Ken Mehlman, the administration bears no responsibility for the flu vaccine shortage – it's all John Kerry's fault. According to Mehlman, John Kerry is responsible because he opposed a 2003 bill that would limit legal liability for drug manufacturers whose products injure patients. The bill never even came up for a vote in the Republican-controlled Senate.

on trying to vote for kerry

check it out. see if you can do it!

http://wearabledissent.com/101/floridaballot.html

thanks rue!

on bush's support for our troops, redux

General Reported Shortages In Iraq
Mon Oct 18, 7:40 AM ET

By Thomas E. Ricks, Washington Post Staff Writer
The top U.S. commander in Iraq complained to the Pentagon last winter that his supply situation was so poor that it threatened Army troops' ability to fight, according to an official document that has surfaced only now.

The lack of key spare parts for gear vital to combat operations, such as tanks and helicopters, was causing problems so severe, Army Lt. Gen. Ricardo S. Sanchez wrote in a letter to top Army officials, that "I cannot continue to support sustained combat operations with rates this low."

on senate races

some of you have asked me recently what the scoop is in terms of senate/house races. i have to admit, there's so much other news lately, that i haven't been following. but, thankfully, the blogger Kos seems to have more time than me, and he's helpfully posted the following information on senate races:

The Big Senate Pictureby kos
Mon Oct 18th, 2004 at 16:48:30 GMT
Here's an overview for those who don't follow the ups and downs of the various Senate contests obsessively.

We start with a Republican advantage of 51-48-1 (with the independent caucusing with Democrats). We need a net gain of two seats to take back the Senate. We can hold it 50-50 if Kerry wins, but it would necessitate the same sort of power-sharing agreement Daschle wrestled out of the GOP in 2000. And such an agreement would close down the Senate. It would be better to either hold the Senate outright, or not have it so Kerry can run against Senate Republican "obstructionists" in 2006 and 2008.

Here are the battleground Senate seats, ranked by chance of switch. Oh, and I don't do "toss-up", as I find it a sort of cop-out, like "50% chance of rain".

1. Illinois (R open seat): The big question here is whether Democrat Barack Obama will get more than 75 percent of the vote. This one is so in the bag, as Republican carpetbagger Alan Keyes makes an ass out of himself, that Obama has spent more time campaigning for other candidates than himself.
Definite Dem pickup
2. Georgia (D open seat): While Denise Majette has showed some life as of late, this race will mark a switch from Republican-pretending-to-be-Democrat Zell Miller to a bona fide Republican.
Likely Rep pickup
3. Colorado (R open seat): Proven Colorado vote getter -- Democratic Attorney General Ken Salazar -- has held solid leads in polls against bad-beer maker Peter Coors. Coors has lots of money, and the NRSC is dumping a lot of cash into the state, so we can't put this one in our column just yet.
Leans Dem pickup
4. South Carolina (D open seat):Republican Jim DeMint looked to be running away with the race against Democrat Inez Tenenbaum. Then the DSCC ran some of the most effective ads of any race this cycle -- hammering DeMint for his proposed national sales tax. Throw in outsourcing as an issue in this textile state, and suddenly Inez is nipping at DeMint's heels. If the election were held today, the state's strong Red bent would give DeMint the victory. But the election is not today, and Inez has the momentum.
Leans Rep pickup
5. Oklahoma (R open seat):We shouldn't be competitive in Oklahoma, but we have a hell of a candidate in Brad Carson, and they have a candidate from hell in Tom Coburn. Carson weathered Coburn's post-primary bump, and has held consistent, if erratic, leads in subsequent polling.
Leans Dem pickup
6. Alaska (R incumbent): Another state where Dems shouldn't be competitive. But we have a super candidate in former governor Tony Knowles. The incumbent is Republican Lisa Murkowski, who was appointed to the seat by her daddy when he moved in to the governor's mansion. Her father's short tenure as governor hasn't been smooth sailing, while the nepotism issue has haunted Lisa from day one. Meanwhile, Knowles has run the perfect, error-free campaign.
Leans Dem pickup
7. North Carolina (D open seat): Democrat Erskine Bowles held strong leads through most of the summer, but after enduring a barrage of negative ads from Richard Burr and the NRSC, that lead has evaporated into a dead heat. If the election where held today, Bowles would eeke out a narrow victory. But the election is not today, and Burr has the momentum.
Leans Dem retention
8. Kentucky (R incumbent): This race shouldn't be on the radar screen, but Republican incumbent Jum Bunning is literally falling apart. His erratic and bizarre behavior has raised alarm bells in the state's media, and the beneficiary has been Democratic long-shot Dan Mongiardo. Bunning still has the advantages of incumbency in a Red state, but those are eroding by the day, alongside Bunning's mental faculties.
Leans Rep retention
9. South Dakota (D incumbent):Depending on the poll, Senate majority leader Tom Daschle is either up comfortable, or up narrowly. One or two outliers (Rasmussent) have shown his republican opponent, John Thune, with a narrow lead. Dascle is the only Democratic incumbent in any danger this cycle, but Daschle has weathered many a close race as a Democrat in this solidly Red state. And SD Democrats have proven they can win, given their hold on the state's two Senate seats and at-large House seat. Those victories are never easy, however.
Leans Dem retention.
10. Louisiana (D open seat):Since reconstruction, Lousiana has not sent a Republican to the Senate, and this year should be no different. The wild-card in this race is the runoff. This seat will be decided in a December runoff election between Republican Daivd Vitter and either Chris John or John Kennedy for the Dems. If Kerry wins the White House, and control of the Senate comes down to this race, the GOP will be able to make a compelling case for divided government.
Leans Dem retention
11. Florida (D open seat):This year's hurricane season has made this Senate race something of a bust (no one thinks politics while they're trying to rebuild their lives). Castor has had the early advantage, though Martinez has been pounding her for alleged ties to accused terrorist sympathizer Al-Arian. Castor just turned the tables on Martinez, running a hard-hitting ad featuring a picture of Al-Arian with George Bush. This race is down in the gutter, but I'm giving Castor the edge given the strong GOTV operation in the state on behalf of Democrats.
Leans Dem retention

taking action

petition here about the GOP's funding of Sproul, who works to suppress Democratic votes by tearing up democratic registration forms.

sign up here to help out with MoveOnPac.org to contact undecideds and Kerry-leaners by phone in swing states. i've been doing it, and it's easy and fun. you just need a computer and the use of the phone simultaneously. just click on "volunteer from anywhere else". you can also go to a swing state for the days before the election, should you so choose :)

tell Ralph Nader to give back the dirty money he collected from Swift Boat vet organization

Stop Sinclair Broadcasting petition

volunteer to help protect this election! be a poll-watcher or distribute 'know your rights' literature in low-income and african-american/hispanic neighborhoods. stop the suppression of votes!

on october surprises

ok, so now there's an article in the spanish newspaper El Mundo that claims that China is holding Bin Laden, and negotiating with the US to turn him over. Does that explain why China got huge tax breaks in the corporate tax bill recently, for the imporation of ceiling fans? Hmmm....

Bin Laden is in China
This confirms Gordon Thomas, a journalist with contacts in the most important intelligence services. The terrorist had reached an agreement with China, which now negotiates its surrender with Bush. It is his greatest electoral trick.
Translated from
El Mundo

read the English version

october surprise in new jersey?

from a suspicious newswatcher on livejournal.com

Surprise! It's October!
As you may or may not have heard, a Kuwait newspaper said the U.S had captured m Zarquai, which U.S and Iraqi officials denied. So where are The President and Mr Bush today, 16 days before the election? In Washington.


From ABCnews "The Note".
NEWS SUMMARY
With 16 days left to go until Nov. 2, Sen. John Kerry attends church in Columbus, OH at 10:00 am ET before flying to Florida, where he holds an early-vote kick-off rally in Pembroke Pines at 4:40 pm ET. Kerry's visit to the state that decided the 2000 election comes one day after President Bush stumped there. Kerry's running mate, Sen. John Edwards, is also in the Sunshine State. He addresses a Baptist church in Dayton Beach, FL at 11:00 am ET, attends an early vote rally at the University of Florida in Gainesville at 2:15 pm ET, and attends a rally at Florida A&M University in Tallahassee at 7:15 pm ET.

President Bush and Vice President Cheney spend the day in Washington, DC with no public events. On Monday, President Bush will travel to New Jersey — a Democratic-leaning state that the President would like to keep in play — to deliver a major speech on terrorism in Burlington County.

But, of course, the last time he announced a major policy speech, it was just a ruse to get a free hour of airtime to display his stump speech. let's hope that's all it is tomorrow.

UPDATE: that's all it was. free airtime, a ruse. some president.

on the plan to win the peace

lifted from salon.com

An extensive review of the Bush administration’s Iraq policy and decisions leads Knight Ridder to conclude that the United States “invaded Iraq without a comprehensive plan in place to secure and rebuild the country.” One sign of just how little planning was done: When an Army lieutenant colonel briefed war planners and intelligence officers in South Carolina just days before the war started, his slide on rebuilding Iraq said: “To be provided.”

10.17.2004

what? you mean incarceration doesn't work?

amazingly enough, it appears that some Guantanamo detainees have RETURNED to fighting the US, after being released. wow. never would have predicted that one.

source

on mutiny and how bush 'supports' our troops

ap story

and from the salon.com story:
There had been some sort of mutiny, it was clear. The details were sketchy, but it appeared that the platoon had refused to deliver a load of fuel to Taji, Iraq, because the soldiers believed their lives were at serious and unnecessary risk. According to the family members' accounts, they were detained at gunpoint by soldiers for more than a day.
But the military denies that the reservists were detained at all. Lt. Col. Dave Rodgers, a spokesman for the 81st Regional Support Readiness Command of the U.S. Army Reserves in Birmingham, Ala., said in an interview Friday that while an investigation into the matter is ongoing, "No soldier has been arrested, charged, confined or detained as a result of this incident."

That would be news to many family members, who say their loved ones told them that they'd been confined in a tent at gunpoint and refused permission to use the bathroom without armed escort.

"Hey, Mom. This is Amber. Real, real big emergency," McClenny said in the recorded message. "I need you to contact someone. I mean, raise pure hell. We had broken down trucks. No armored vehicles. Get somebody on this. I need you now, Mom. I need you so bad. Just please, please help me. It's urgent. They are holding us against our will. We are now prisoners."

According to family members, the convoy was being asked to go much farther than usual from its southern base -- on a more than 200-mile trip through and around the extremely hostile Baghdad area. The tankers lacked bullet-resistant armor and, lumbering along at 40 miles an hour, would have made an easy target for insurgents lobbing bombs or grenades. The supply trucks are in disrepair and prone to breakdown. Many of the soldiers hadn't had enough sleep. And – astonishingly -- no armed escort or air protection was to be provided, the family members said.

Most absurdly, though, the jet fuel that these members of the 343rd Quartermaster Company were risking life and limb to transport wasn't even usable. It was contaminated with diesel and had already sensibly been rejected by one base and would undoubtedly be rejected again in Taji -- if the convoy managed to make it to its destination at all.



on suppressing the vote

watch our democracy disintegrate right before your eyes. GOP-paid companies are being charged with setting up voter registration offices that destroy democratic registrations in Nevada and Oregon. GOP-supporting Secretaries of States are refusing to print enough ballots (Milwaukee), refusing to accept ballots with minor errors (Florida), attempting to use flawed, and known to be flawed voter-purge lists that discriminate against African Americans (Florida), refusing to provide a paper trail for unreliable touch-screen voting machines (Florida), refusing or obstructing the acceptance of registrations based on paper weight (Ohio), and making provisional voting difficult (Ohio). here's a few fun reads.

shenanigans run-down
Florida and more Florida
various (including Nevada, Wisconsin, Colorado)
paul krugman's take on affairs
on sprouls's ghouls (oregon, nevada, west virginia). Sproul is a GOP operative who ran the offices where employees tore up democratic registration forms.

on provisional voting
Provisional Voting Glance
A 2002 election reform law requires every state to offer backup, or provisional ballots to voters this year. The ballots will be used when voters think they are properly registered but their names do not appear on the rolls. States have adopted different rules for evaluating the ballots.
(AP)

-- Number of states that will count provisional ballots only if they are cast in the correct precinct: 26 and the District of Columbia.
_Number of those states that are considered among the most contested for the presidency: five.
_States facing lawsuits now over rules for provisional ballots: Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Missouri.
_Deadline to count provisional ballots in battleground Michigan: Nov. 9, seven days after the election.
_Number of provisional ballots cast in a Chicago primary last March: 5,914.
_Number of those votes later determined eligible: 416.



on optimism and polls

the best news lately:
The latest opinion polls showed Mr. Bush apparently edging slightly ahead of Mr. Kerry, turning the dead heat of midweek into a lead of 2 to 3 percentage points; these results, however, fall within the surveys' margins of error.
But one poll, for The Washington Post, showed Mr. Kerry holding a 10-point lead, 53 to 43 percent, in 13 crucial battleground states that may decide the election.
nytimes

check out this opinion piece:
http://www.workingforchange.com/article.cfm?itemid=17880

Conventional wisdom suggests this year's presidential election will be close. Practically every poll taken has the race within the margin of error.

At the risk of looking like a fool, I am prepared to respectfully disagree with conventional wisdom to offer the following contrarian perspective: The election will not be close.

It difficult for me to believe the race is as close as the polls indicate, especially when one considers that 56 percent of the electorate feels the country is headed in the wrong direction. Moreover, it has been 16 months since 50 percent felt we were headed in the right direction.

here's something else to make you smile.
i got this from another blog http://www.livejournal.com/users/dabrooklyn/

he writes: "There's a profile of political pollster John Zogby in the 10/18/04 issue of The New Yorker. I wish I could copy and paste the whole article for you or at least link to it, but I'm afraid it's not online at their website. However, I will transcribe one paragraph from "The Pollster" for you. The reporter is quoting Zogby, who was giving a talk to a convention of road builders in Boston, last month. Here you go:
"How do I get a handle on this election or any other?" he asked the road builders. "I asked one question the Saturday before the election in 2000. I called my call center in Utica and said, 'Put this in the poll: "You live in the land of Oz, and the candidates are the Tin Man, who's all brains and no heart, and the Scarecrow, who's all heart and no brains. Who would you vote for?"' The next day, I called Utica and said, 'Whaddya got?' They said, 'Well, we've got Gore--," I said, 'I don't care about Gore. What's Oz?' It was 46.2 for the Tin Man and 46.2 for the Scarecrow. It was right there that I knew I wasn't going to know what was going to happen. But I asked thisis question again two weeks ago and the Tin Man led by ten points.
From page 86 of "The Pollster" in the 10/18/04 issue of The New Yorker.

on diversions

so, the mary cheney flap. Dick Cheney himself has been using her sexuality on the campaign trail. Click here to watch a Human Rights Campaign ad with him on the stump on Aug. 24, 2004: "Lynne and I have a gay daughter ... "
source

interestingly enough, they were silent when GOP nutjob Alan Keyes said that Mary Cheney was a "selfish hedonist" (for engaging in non-procreative sex).

In an interview with SIRUS satellite radio, the Internet's Drudge Report said Wednesday, Keyes called Mary Cheney "a 'selfish hedonist' because she is a lesbian."

Keyes said: "The essence of ... family life remains procreation. If we embrace homosexuality as a proper basis for marriage, we are saying that it's possible to have a marriage state that in principal excludes procreation and is based simply on the premise of selfish hedonism."

Asked whether that meant Mary Cheney "is a selfish hedonist," Keyes said: "That goes by definition. Of course she is."

um... lynne? dick? where's your outrage about that?

so...if any of you think that a four-day flap about mary cheney was anything BUT a diversion, i'd be interested to know. notice how we didn't hear about bush's falsehood in the third debate--that he never said he wasn't concerned about osama? here's the proof of what he said in that press conference (click on clip link). notice how we didn't hear that john kerry swept all three debates? poll numbers say that kerry was perceived to win all three debates by 57-27, or something like that. i seem to have lost that link somehow. but you get the point...

10.16.2004

on jon stewart

jon stewart on cnn's 'crossfire'. best line: i will not be your monkey.

http://homepage.mac.com/njenson/movies/jonstewartcrossfire.html

10.12.2004

on kerry v. bush

i just watched a tremendous documentary on kerry and bush--their backgrounds, their records and their motivations. it was a frontline documentary, and really well done. they didn't pursue some of bush's issues as far as i would have liked, but they really gave a substantial look at kerry--who he is, what his experience is, what his record is...and really explained how he would lead. you can watch it on streaming video on the web here, or catch it in two future broadcasts:
Saturday, October 16, 2:00 pm
Monday, October 18, 1:00 am

on what baghdad is really like

Cited in today's Doonesbury comic, this link
http://www.poynter.org/column.asp?id=45&aid=72659

will take you to a journalism site that has posted an incredibly disturbing email from a reporter from the Wall Street Journal. She describes what it is like trying to report from Baghdad, and how many Iraqis feel about the US, democracy, and the January elections.

10.10.2004

on the 'liberal' media

Conservative TV group to air anti-Kerry film
By Elizabeth Jensen, Los Angeles Times, October 9, 2004

The conservative-leaning Sinclair Broadcast Group, whose television outlets reach nearly a quarter of the nation's homes with TV, is ordering its stations to preempt regular programming just days before the Nov. 2 election to air a film that attacks Sen. John F. Kerry's activism against the Vietnam War, network and station executives familiar with the plan said Friday.

Sinclair's programming plan, communicated to executives in recent days and coming in the thick of a close and intense presidential race, is highly unusual even in a political season that has been marked by media controversies.

Sinclair has told its stations -- many of them in political swing states such as Ohio and Florida -- to air "Stolen Honor: Wounds That Never Heal," sources said. The film, funded by Pennsylvania veterans and produced by a veteran and former Washington Times reporter, features former POWs accusing Kerry -- a decorated Navy veteran turned war protester -- of worsening their ordeal by prolonging the war.

Sinclair will preempt regular prime-time programming from the networks to show the film, which may be classified as news programming, according to TV executives familiar with the plan. [complete article]

friday debate--still his back is bulky Posted by Hello

just a few things

so, last night we had the 2nd presidential debate. by most counts, kerry led by a little bit. the abc poll had him at 44 to bush's 41. interestingly, i read somewhere online (lost the link for now) that independents surveyed felt that kerry won 50-something to bush's low 30s. sorry i can't source that just now. so that bodes well. [update: here's the link: The Gallup Organization reports that the independents it surveyed last night split 53% for Kerry, 37% for Bush.]

i had a couple of chuckles about bush's malapropisms. thankfully, someone else already wrote them down, so i didn't have to. just cut and paste, baby!

taken from this blog
I wasn't happy when we found out there wasn't weapons
I hear there's rumors on the Internets...
And what my worry is is that, you know, it looks like it's from Canada, and it might be from a third world. (Drugs from outer space? Who knew?)
What happens in those forests, because of lousy federal policy, is they grow to be -- they are not -- they're not harvested.That's why I proposed a hydrogen automobile -- hydrogen-generated automobile. I guess you'd say I'm a good steward of the land. (Not technically a Bushism, just an incredible display of chutzpah)
This is different from saying, "OK, let me incent you to go on the government."

perhaps just as interesting, but not as funny, was his "joke" about wanting all the supreme court justices to vote for him. ha! ha! like they did before! ha! i'm still laughing!

anyway, i still can't believe that this man is in the oval office, doodling, while cheney and rove plot to take over the world.

lastly. is bush wired? this story has legs, baby! i even heard it on the 10pm news sat night. ny times coverage today. who knows whether it's true. it's just a lot more amusing that the recent jobs report, the cia report, this weeks terror in egypt and pakistan (and iraq, of course), and the murders of 10 police during afghanistan's elections today (guarding ballot boxes). as bush said, liberty changes habits. so, i bring you the latest photo, above, that some are posting, and suggesting that bush was wired again on friday night. check out www.isbushwired.com for video and other links, if you are interested.

tot ziens

10.08.2004

hussein and eminem--who's your baghdaddy?

http://atomfilms.shockwave.com/af/content/real_hussein_2

was bush wired during the last debate?

ok, so those of you who know me well know that i am susceptible to conspiracy theories. so i waited on this one for a day or two. but, well, i decided to go ahead and post this story because 1) it's just too interesting to pass up, and 2) it hasn't yet been disproven or sufficiently denied.

so, the story is that the candidates were NOT supposed to be filmed from the back during the debate, according the the rules agreed upon by their debate teams. but, a couple cameras did capture a shot of bush, leaning over his podium, with a clearly visible bulge in the middle of his back under his suit jacket. some bloggers have suggested that the bulge is evidence of a radio transmitter that delivered a radio signal to an earpiece--basically feeding lines to bush during the debate. it has been reported that during another event, people could hear a low voice saying bush's lines right before he said them. here's the story as reported on Salon.com.

the picture is in the below post. following fox: we report, you decide.



bush wired? Posted by Hello

like father like son Posted by Hello

on Cheney, Halliburton and Iran

Edwards pointed out that Halliburton and its subsidiaries did business with Iran, when Cheney was CEO. He even pushed for the lifting of sanctions during his tenure. Now he calls Iran "the world's leading exporter of terror."

The AP reports:
At an energy industry conference in 1996, Cheney said sanctions were the greatest threat to Halliburton and other American oil-related companies trying to expand overseas.
"We seem to be sanction-happy as a government," Cheney said. "The problem is that the good Lord didn't see fit to always put oil and gas resources where there are democratic governments."
(emphasis mine)

even last year, Halliburton continued to do business with Iran.
Halliburton's foreign subsidiaries did about $65 million in business with Iran last year, company documents say. A federal grand jury is investigating whether Halliburton or its executives deliberately violated the U.S. ban on trade with Iran.

10.07.2004

fact-checking Cheney and Edwards debate

here's a great article that reviews many of the claims made by Cheney and Edwards during Tuesday's debate, including the number of coalition deaths, Halliburton, and jobs lost. from factcheck.org--not factcheck.com!

on Cheney's Senate record

from American Progress Report, Oct. 7

DEBATE – CHENEY NOT PRESIDING VERY OFTEN:
Vice President Cheney led into his now discredited claim that he had never met Sen. Edwards before debate night by saying, "Now, in my capacity as vice president, I am the president of Senate, the presiding officer. I'm up in the Senate most Tuesdays when they're in session." Actually, according to congressional records compiled on Daily Kos, Cheney has "presided over the Senate a grand total of two times the past four years." That's just as many times as…John Edwards. In other news relating to things Cheney said which have no basis in fact, Sen. Edwards's hometown paper, The News & Observer, responded to the vice president's charge it had "taken to calling [Edwards] Senator Gone." An archive search found "no such reference in The News & Observer."

on frivolous lawsuits

from the American Progress Report, Oct. 7

ECONOMY –
MORE "FRIVOLOUS LAWSUITS" FILED BY BUSINESSES THAN AGAINST THEM:

Yesterday, President Bush said "frivolous lawsuits" and "trial lawyers" were a "threat to our economy" because they weigh down American businesses. A new report by Public Citizen says otherwise. In fact, "American businesses file four times as many lawsuits as do individuals represented by trial attorneys, and they are penalized by judges much more often for pursuing frivolous litigation." A survey in parts of four different states found that in 2001, businesses were 3.3 to 5.8 times more likely to file lawsuits than were individuals. The findings come as "businesses and politicians are campaigning to limit citizens' rights to sue over everything from medical malpractice damages to defective products. By way of comparison, the number of American consumers (281 million) outnumbers the number of businesses in America (7 million) by 40 times."

on the French--those wusses!

France Was Ready to Send Troops to Iraq, Book Says
By Glenn Kessler
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, October 6, 2004; Page A18

French officials were prepared to provide as many as 15,000 troops for an invasion of Iraq before relations soured between the Bush administration and the French government over the timing of an attack, according to a new book published in France this week.

The book, "Chirac Contre Bush: L'Autre Guerre" ("Chirac vs. Bush: The Other War"), reports that a French general, Jean Patrick Gaviard, visited the Pentagon to meet with Central Command staff on Dec. 16, 2002 -- three months before the war began -- to discuss a French contribution of 10,000 to 15,000 troops and to negotiate landing and docking rights for French jets and ships.

French military officials were especially interested in joining in an attack, because they felt that not participating with the United States in a major war would leave French forces unprepared for future conflicts, according to Thomas Cantaloube, one of the authors. But the negotiations did not progress far before French President Jacques Chirac decided that the Americans were pushing too fast to short-circuit inspections by U.N. weapons inspectors.

good news

latest AP poll:
"The AP-Ipsos Public Affairs poll, completed on the eve of the second presidential debate, charted a reversal from a month ago, when the Republican incumbent had the momentum and a minuscule lead. Since then, bloodshed increased in Iraq, Kerry sharpened his attacks and Bush stumbled in their initial debate.

Nearly three-fourths of likely voters said they had watched or listened to the first presidential debate last week, according to the poll. Only 8 percent came away with a more favorable view of Bush while 39 percent said they felt better about Kerry.

Among 944 likely voters, the Democratic ticket of Kerry and Sen. John Edwards led Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney 50 percent to 46 percent. The Oct. 4-6 survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points."

update on no wmds. bush: "still justified!"

Cheney defending:
Oct. 7, 2004 Miami -- Vice President Dick Cheney asserted on Thursday that a report by the chief U.S. weapons inspector in Iraq, who found no evidence that Iraq produced weapons of mass destruction after 1991, justifies rather than undermines President Bush's decision to go to war. (emphasis mine)

The report shows that "delay, defer, wasn't an option," Cheney told a town-hall style meeting.


bush defending: we were right, america is safer

and on and on and on like that...

on undecided voters

great little essay in Salon.com today by someone who volunteered in PA, talking to undecided seniors. reminds me not to get so uppity about these people...

on the absence of WMDs

As you have heard, there were no WMDs. No stockpiles. No weapons programs. No weapons program related activities. Sure, Saddam would have liked to make his sworn enemy, Iran, think that he was not totally defenseless. And sure, he would have liked to get some weapons, if sanctions were ever to be lifted. But he didn't have any weapons.

so, my question is: how can someone comply with UN resolutions to "disarm" when they are not armed? There are already some questions about the legality of our invasion, but I imagine that this confirmation that Saddam had, in fact, disarmed in 1991 makes the invasion patently illegal.

In the lead-up to the war, newspapers reported Bush saying things like this:
President Bush labeled Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein a "murderous tyrant" who may be planning to attack the United States with biological and chemical weapons. Speaking to more than 800 at Cincinnati's Museum Center at Union Terminal, the President said Iraq's leader "is a threat to peace and must disarm."

And in the debate last Thursday, Bush said: "Saddam Hussein had no intention of disarming. Why should he? He had 16 other resolutions and nothing took place. "
(debate transcript)

maybe we can get the UN to pass a resolution that Bush should stop denying that Iraq was a mistake.


taken from Salon.com's War Room:

Thursday's must-reads
Wall Street Journal: Kerry's debate performance helped him in battlegrounds -- he now holds leads "albeit some of them razor-thin" in 13 battleground states, up from 11.

Washington Post: Bush looking bad this week as "one by one, official reports by government investigators, statements by former administration officials and internal CIA analyses have combined to undermine many of the central rationales of the administration's case for war with Iraq -- and its handling of the post-invasion occupation."

AP: An "extraordinary second rebuke" in six days for Tom DeLay from the House ethics committee.

New York Times (opinion): "The suppression of minority votes has continued because it is perceived as a winning tactic, and because it is rarely punished."

welcome to politmundo

so, i decided to stop yelling "and another thing..." at inappropriate moments, and jot it down here instead. glad you could stop by.

first, as you know, i am a bit of a newsjunkie. so much pisses me off that i just can't bear it some days. think of this blog as my escape valve, and you'll get the idea of what you're in for.

because we are in the midst of an extremely intense political season, i'm spending a lot of time reading and analyzing the news. this blog will present the interesting stuff i find on my two-hours-per-day of keeping my ear to the ground (and eyes to the screen). i know, it's probably not good for my health in the long run. but who's concerned about the long run, really, when we're facing another four years of bush/cheney corp.?

well, onwards. enjoy.

10.06.2004

even the green zone isn't safe

from Salon.com's "War Room"

Unsafe in the Green Zone
As War Room noted back in mid-September, even the primary citadel of U.S. power in Iraq, Baghdad's Green Zone, had reportedly become vulnerable to attack by Iraqi insurgents. An alarming email from the U.S. embassy there, posted today by blogger Andrew Sullivan, confirms that the security situation has continued to deteriorate:

From: 'Baghdad, USConsul'
To: 'Baghdad, USConsul'
Subject: Warden Message
Date: Wed, 6 Oct 2004 14:36:13 +0000
Warden Message - Increased Security Awareness within the International Zone

On October 5, 2004, at approximately 1 pm, U.S. Embassy security personnel discovered an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) at the Green Zone Café. A U.S. Military Explosive Ordnance Detachment safely disarmed the IED. American citizens living or working in the International Zone are strongly encouraged to take the following security precautions:

*Limit non-essential movement within the International Zone, especially at night.
*Travel in groups of two or more.
*Carry several means of communication.
*Avoid the Green Zone Café, the Chinese Restaurants, the Lone Star restaurant and Vendor Alley. *Conduct physical fitness training within a compound perimeter.
*Notify office personnel or friends of your travel plans in the International Zone.
**** Conduct a thorough search of your vehicle prior to entering it.

Consular Section

US Embassy Baghdad


Perhaps the embassy's email should also be forwarded to the White House. As John Edwards noted in his debate with Dick Cheney last night: "Mr. Vice President, you are still not being straight with the American people. I mean, the reality you and George Bush continue to tell people, first, that things are going well in Iraq … it's not just me that sees the mess in Iraq. There are Republican leaders, like John McCain, like Richard Lugar, like Chuck Hagel, who have said Iraq is a mess and it's getting worse."
-- Mark Follman