on momentum

the state tracking polls are swinging toward kerry. he's leading in likely and registered voter polls in most battleground states. kerry's ahead in florida, ohio and pennsylvania in the latest ARG poll. overall, polls show that he leads by about 5 in battleground states (some polls showing leading by 2, some showing leading by 9).

he's tied in half the national polls, some of which have overrepresentation of republicans in them (38% repubs, 30% dems. national percentage last election was 32% dems 30% repubs). in the last three days, he's been ahead by 1 or 2 points in the LA Times, Rasmussen, Harris, WashPost, Greenland polls. Behind in the Gallup, Newsweek. With registered voters only, he's tied in CBS and Newsweek polls.

subgroup analysis shows several patterns very favorable to the Kerry campaign (in gallup poll):
1. Kerry leads among independents by 5, 49-44.
2. Kerry leads among moderates by 18, 57-35.
3. Kerry leads in the battleground states by 2, 49-47, and Bush's approval rating in these same states has sunk to 46 percent.

african-american vote for kerry is at 90%. check out the analysis on this, that refutes the current story that bush is getting 18% here.

early voters are out in force. new voters are rocking the world. two million new voters in florida alone. new voters favor kerry about 60-40.

37% of dems believe this is the most important election of their lifetime; 27% repubs

kerry outpaces bush in final month spending. 527s are kicking ass in organizing at the street level.

we've become competitive in states we had written off: nevada, arkansas, colorado, west virginia, virginia.

and we are in the last stretch. and bush is on the defensive about the missing weapons, the leaked proposal to request another $75 billion for Iraq, and the massacre of Iraqi national guardsman. number of words he said yesterday about the missing weapons? Zero.