the economy, silly season, fading Palin, as the worm turns, little treats, and more

Hi everyone,
It's been a few days, and there's a lot to catch up on.

But before we go on: I've included a bunch of new email addresses in this mailing--if you don't want to receive semi-regular updates on the campaign and general politics, please let me know and I'll remove your name right away. If you want to take a look at my previous email blasts, you can see them on my blog (which is missing the last week or two of posts, will be updated soon).

First, briefly, the economy:

• McCain thinks the "fundamentals are strong."
• Obama criticizes McCain's call for a commission to look into the bank collapse as "the oldest Washington stunt in the book...You pass the buck to a commission to study [it] . . . We know how we got into this mess. What we need now is leadership that get us out. I'll provide it. John McCain won't."

It's well into the "silly season"

• McCain advisor tries to give McCain credit for the Blackberry
• The talking point that went awry: Carly Fiorina, McCain's economic advisor, asserts that neither Palin nor McCain could run a company...
• More false balance: CNN's Candy Crowley says it's not her job to "tell you whether [the lying from both campaigns] is equal or not"--well, who's job is it, if not journalists'?
  

Is the Palin shock and awe starting to fade?

• Saturday Night Live gets into the act: Tina Fey as Sarah Palin
• Palin's popularity starts to decline as people get to know her.
• Good coverage of the largest political protest in Alaska--women against Palin
• Obama regains ground in national tracking polls
• And McCain seems to be getting a little upset that things aren't going so well...

Mainstream and conservative journalists are starting to sour on McCain

• David Ignatius (Washington Post), Richard Cohen (WashPo), David Brooks--
• Fox News's Megyn Kelly is challening McCain's flunkies, and the traveling press corps actually held a miniprotest today on the campaign plane.
• The Wall St. Journal has taken, as well, to correcting McCain's lies--regularly! Here they are correcting his lie from his appearance on The View (watch here!) that Palin's never pursued earmarks.

One of the scariest things I've read: Palin is a neo-con project.

"Golden Week" in Ohio!!!
One of the best opportunities we've got: "golden week" in Ohio--one week during which we can register new voters and they can vote early! It's like "banking votes" for the election. Help out with this effort by going to Ohio or contributing directly to vans and other costs to make this a big push.

Palin's Lying Problem?
I'm starting to think that Palin's lying is just compulsive, rather than tactical: She continues to lie about the teleprompter failing during her RNC speech. She cut funding for the Special Olympics, but promised she would be an advocate for special needs children. Andrew Sullivan has been tracking "the Odd Lies of Sarah Palin," and is up to ten as of this writing (teleprompter, the percent of energy from Alaska, habeas corpus, and it goes on and on...

Palin's Troopergate Problem
Palin is now fighting the Troopergate investigation, which she embraced just a few months ago, and it now seems like she can't get her stories straight. The state official who was allegedly pressured to fire Palin's ex-brother in law has now come out and baldly stated that Palin lied to ABC news.

Little Treats:

• Great line from Obama: John McCain's trying to say he's all about change. "If you believe that, I've got a bridge in Alaska to sell you!"
• Amazing pictures: near-empty McCain rally (and palin fans leave during mccain's speech in florida today), awesome turnout in Colorado for Obama
• Biden kicks some ass!
  
• Rundown of recent, hard-hitting ads against McCain
  
• Even John McCain's cousin is calling him out.

And as always, here are a few actions you can take right now!

1. Donate (through my fundraising page, or elsewhere!)
2. Make sure you're registered and/or request an absentee ballot
3. Volunteer

Every day in New York:

Obama for America New York HQ urgently needs phone bankers!
Every night this week from 5-9 PM; Shifts are 5-9pm, 5-7pm and 7-9pm. Please arrive 10 minutes early for a brief training. @ Teamsters Union -- 216 W. 14th St., 6th Floor MUST RSVP! Please RSVP to nyobamavolunteers@gmail.com

This weekend in PA (get there by bus and cars--click links for more info):

9/20, this Sat

• Northeast Philly
• Scranton
• Women's rally in Scranton
• Wilkes-Barre
• Latino voter reg event in Allentown

9/21, this Sunday

• Voter Reg in NW Philly
• trip from Forest Hill, Queens, to Scranton

the "damn, this is a nasty campaign" edition

hey people--i'm going away for a few days...i'll be back on the case on monday.
until then...

viral video--that is, pass it on! (it doesn't go viral just sitting in your inbox)

• enough is enough! obama's pushback on the fabricated "lipstick on a pig" controversy
• a funny, illuminating look at "earmark reform" sarah palin-style
  
• smart AND good-looking: thank you, matt damon!
• not really video, but still worth passing on: obama tax cut calculator

innoculate yourself from future pain:

• palin's first interview (tomorrow) with abc will be a sham
• charlie gibson is known to let mccain lies slide
• mccain embraces the staged rally (hint: rove et al is in control, which means there's much, much more crap to come.)
  

And a great read: the harshest call out on mccain's loss of integrity: thank you, andrew sullivan (i can't believe i'm saying that)

Again, a call to action:

• as always, please donate.
• volunteer, if you can.
• here's tools for letter writing--to newspapers, on notable blogs and news sites...if you have an opinion about what's going on, about a particular issue, this is one way to help change the conversation
• and please read and pass along a letter against Sarah Palin, collecting and posting comments from women across the country on this website

what goes up must come down

Some of you may be worried, because McCain's numbers are in an upswing.
Remember: a bounce does not a trend make.

So now for some perspective:

Good overviews and analyses of the polls. Nate Silver--things are pretty much where we expected them to be. Evangelicals will move a little to McCain, Clinton democrats move a little to Obama. It will take a few days for us to see how the two conventions wash out, but so far there is no evidence that McCain's convention shifted anything dramatically. Because this is a state-by-state election, not a national contest, Kos has a look at the state-by-state numbers, which are still good for Obama.

No more "oh noes!" Here's a good response to those who demand "Obama, you must hit back, harder, now! You've got to get McCain to be on the defensive!" Well, one smart guy points out that McCain IS playing defensive, trying to catch up as the "change" candidate. Remember in the primaries, when all the other candidates tried to poach Obama's turf? And, just think, could this guy be right, that the Obama campaign is exactly where they want to--and where they've planned to--be? Finally, a great primer/rant on why not to panic.

Great new ad from Obama. And voila! Look at this neato ad Obama's made...hitting back against the maverick meme, but also sticking to the message: mccain is no different than bush.

The truth will out (i think). The press is starting to report Palin's many lies. Here's the AP actually noting Palin's earmark requests. WashPo calls McCain's new ad a "whopper." And even the Wall Street Journal is getting in on the fun.

Still feeling worried? Then make a little donation (via my fundraising page here) to soothe your nerves. And take a look at the great voter reg numbers in Georgia, which is what's happening in all the battleground states...if you want to volunteer in PA, let me know!

the short edition

The short version. A few tidbits to make you smile, and cringe.

Stimulating the base...the democratic base! Volunteers coming out of the woodwork...One great story from LA, and another from somewhere else...

Apparently, the McCain campaign tried to use wounded troops as a prop, and f-ed up big time. The image shown behind McCain during his acceptance speech (snore) was Walter Reed MIDDLE SCHOOL...not the Walter Reed veterans hospital...and school administrators are not happy about it..

you know that cute talking point about how palin is such a maverick that she cut government spending by getting rid of the governor's plane, by selling it on ebay, for a profit! well, actually she tried to sell it on ebay, no one nibbled, so she sold it, through a broker, at a loss...

and last night, the mccain campaign pimped 9/11 to make us afraid...and keith olbermann calls them on it, and apologizes that such extended, and graphic, footage was played. thank you, keith!

excellent tv alert: monday night, obama will be on keith olbermann's countdown, and that will be followed by the debut of rachel maddow's new show!

no longer reeling from the virtriol, praise be. (but i haven't seen tonight's speeches yet...)

The Palin Speech edition

Wow. That was a lot of nasty. Watching last night, I felt like I'd been thrown back in time, and Newt Gingrich was leading a charge on Congress....the pitchfork brigade, as Pat Buchanan lovingly called it back then.

But it may have been just a tad too nasty, too petty for most people to stomach. Sure, the Repub haters were thrilled to get their hate on, and that self-righteous sneer comes very easily. And they don't have a record, a sitting president, or a top-ticket candidate to feel good about.

But the night was full of cognitive dissonance, from Rudy Giuliani criticizing Obama on the grounds of cosmopolitanism...all while standing in front of a picture of the NYC skyline... to Mitt Romney blaming everything on liberals and east coast elites (um, he was gov. of Massachusetts, which passed universal health care and gay marriage while he was there...)--as if the Repubs hadn't controlled D.C. for 6 of the last 7 years...

Anyway, here's some tidbits to brighten your night, and smooth out your wrinkled gray matter:

First, (a snippet of) Obama's great response (click for video).

You wouldn't know that this is such a critical election by watching the convention last night. I know we had our week. And the Republicans deserve theirs. But it's been amazing for me to watch over the last two nights. If you sit there, and you watch it. You're hearing a lot about John McCain, and he's got a compelling biography as a P.O.W.

You're hearing an awful lot about me. Most of which is not true.

What you're not hearing is a lot about you.

Focus groups in Michigan and Nevada didn't seem to like Palin all that much, Indiana man-on-the-street interviews showed the same thing, and Sunday night, Minnesota CSPAN viewers didn't think much of McCain's pick, either. A choice quote, for your pleasure, from a 66 year-old independent: "She was a Republican novelty act with a sophomoric script. It was not even a speech I would expect for someone running for the local PTA, much less for vice president."

Palin repulsed moderate McCain supporters, Republicans, and Hillary supporters: Field reports.

• Ron Paul supporter, registered Republican, now will vote for Obama.
• Immediate negative responses on media websites' blogs.
• Republican husband wavers all summer, finally comes on board.
• Sister-in-law dumps GOP.
• Two registered Republicans come on board.
• 102 year old, W.Texas grandma finally decides to vote Obama
• "Sarah Palin vs. my mother" (Guess who wins?)
• New to volunteering, another joins the campaign
• And another first-time volunteer
  
• Anti-Obama Hillary supporter changes her mind
  

Here's people making first-time donations to Obama, repulsed by the Repubs. Obama's on track to raise $10 million in 24 hours since her speech. Want to donate? Here's my fundraising page! As Obama said last week: "Enough!"

Unintended consequences?
Nate Silver says Chicago's Obama headquarters have got to be happy

St. Paul delegates are giddy with Sarah Palin's speech. The mood is buoyant, enlivened, energized. It's a party. There are revelers. The faces shine with joy and pleasure at a convention finally fully underway. Their VP nominee did it – she hit it out of the park. There is joy in Mudville, here on the ground.

And it worked wonders – for the Dems.

And here's a great analysis why Palin's speech was great, and why it bombed anyway.

And the Scandal Update

• Palin's handwriting on earmark: "we did well!"
• Emerging email trail on Troopergate. The Alaskan police union is filing a complaint.
• Cindy McCain's outfit last night: worth 300k!

McCain's Whining about the Media Isn't Completely Working
The AP actually does some factchecking on Palin's speech
Joe Klein (Time Magazine) dares his colleague not to crumble, and to continue to look into Palin's record.
Roger Simon, of Politico.com, snarks up an "apology" . One of the only times I've ever agreed with that guy!

fired up!

Sarah Palin and John McCain have decided to run a small campaign full of old ideas, to divide and distract us, to stir up old resentments and fan the embers of the culture wars. These two are both warriors, of a sort--and we can't let them lead us down the path toward increased international conflict and hyperpartisan social conservatism. The challenges we face are too complicated, the geopolitical field is too dynamic, and the real longing of the American people for leadership is too great to reboot that old 1980s game of us vs. them.

As most of you know, I've put some time and some money into this campaign, and I have to say it feels great. I volunteered during the primaries, I've started going on daytrips to Philly to register and turn out voters, and whenever I can, I blog and digest the news for friends and family.

I hope that you'll join me in volunteering, if you can, and I hope you will consider supporting the Obama campaign financially. If we're going to win, we're going to do it on the ground--that means more than 30 field offices in Wisconsin, it means full-time organizers in the 13 offices in Philly alone...and it means supplies, office space, phone lines, and all that's needed to run a grassroots campaign.

I've set a personal fundraising goal for the campaign, outside of my own donations--will you please make a donation and help me reach my goal?

------
Now, about that speech:

In short: repubs 2008 is a lot like repubs 1992--distract and divide.

Last night, very late, i collected a lot of links to interesting stories of people donating and volunteering for the first time since seeing Palin (and Giuliani, and Romney)...and will get them pretty for you and send them out this evening.

In the meantime, in case you are feeling jittery, this is a great take on the impact of Palin's speech, and her candidacy. the upshot?

The mockery went too far. They played the "Obama doesn't love America, just himself" card, over and over and over. For people already inclined to believe that (i.e., the hardcore Republican base), the speech was a smashing success. Maybe they will work a little harder, volunteer a few more hours, dig a little deeper into their pockets. But so will partisan Dems, who are far more plugged into watching the election coverage.

So my reaction: St. Paul loved this speech… and so did Chicago...Fire up both bases equally, it's not even close. Obama wins going away. In 2008, there are so many more Democrats, numerically.

i'm going to philly this weekend again to register voters. anyone want to join me?

am i rubbernecking?

The pre-Palin Speech edition.

WHOA...now tell me what you really think.

• Top GOP journalist, Peggy Noonan, and GOP strategist, Mike Murphy, caught on live microphone: "It's over...political bullshit...gimmicky."
• Mike Murphy tells Chuck Todd, on the record: "I love John McCain to death, but this is the stupidest thing in the world."
• Who is Levi Johnston, and what does he have to say? On his MySpace page, he writes
• "I'm a f - - -in' redneck . . . I live to play hockey. I like to go camping and hang out with the boys, do some fishing, shoot some s- - - and just f - - -in' chillin' I guess...Ya f - - - with me I'll kick [your] ass." And here's the kicker: "I don't want kids." (Isn't anyone going to say that this is technically a prosecutable crime (date rape) since she's 17 and he's 18?)

WHOA...that's not reform we can believe in!

• Pulling a Cheney: Palin is refusing to testify in the Troopergate scandal, and also and trying to run out the clock. She IS a Republican, all right!
• Palin stumps for the Bridge to Nowhere, with pics!
• Palin was on McCain's anti-earmark shameful "pork" list.

Three pleasant things:

• Fairbanks, Alaska--Republican mayor endorses Obama
• DNC viewership higher than RNC
• Early reactions, a la the Gallup poll, make it appear that since Palin pick, Repub women are going to McCain, but independent and Dem women are going to Obama--which means that McCain's strategy is not, at least initially, succeeding.
  

Two not-so-pleasant things:

• Both history and actuarial tables show why this vp choice matters. Nearly 1 in 3 vice presidents have ascended to the presidency, 9 without being elected; there is a 1 in 3 chance that McCain won't live until he's 80.
• Only 36 black delegates at RNC, at a 40 year low (1.5% of total delegates)

More scandal? Really?

• National Enquirer following a story now that Palin had an affair with her husband's business partner. McCain camp is denying it...but then, so did Edwards.
• Another Palin firing scandal?
• And some kind of scandal in relation to a big dairy operation?

the good, the questionable, and the ugly (bonus pic)

(a preface: to state the obvious, this was a freakin busy news day. send me links to anything i've missed that you think important, and i'll blast that out tomorrow)

GOOD:

• Check out this great new ad by Obama's campaign! obama's killer new ad!

• While the Sarah Palin storm sucks up all the air in newsrooms across the country, Obama's out there doing all the right things. And the polls are showing a positive trend upward.

• The media actually have started asking real, reasonable questions about Palin's experience. And having to start every other sentence with "but the fact is..." is not a good sign.

QUESTIONABLE:

• Did Rove really just say that Palin was "not a governing decision, but a campaign decision?" Since when does Rove speak truthfully?

• Did McCain really just cancel an appearance on Larry King's show? Since when does tough-guy McCain shy away from talking to his buddies in the media?

• Did Charlie Black, McCain's campaign manager, really just say that this election is not about the issues? Since when does...oh wait, that's right, McCain's campaign has ONLY been stunts and biopics, not focused on the issues...

• Is McCain's campaign stalling the investigation into "troopergate"? That's not maverickyness we can believe in!

• Is she really crying sexism, after criticizing Hillary for "whining"?

• Do they ALL have ties to Jack Abramoff? Apparently her lobbyist worked for Abramoff, too~!

• Are her surrogates really so unprepared that they can't summarize her vast and profound experience?

• Palin uses religious language in stark ways--hoping that Iraq is a "task from God," and that it's "God's will...to get that gas line built."

• Does Palin have her very own Rev. Wright? Who said: "The fires of hell are frozen glaciers compared to my hatred for the American government..."

AND JUST DOWNRIGHT UGLY:
Palin sought to ban books, tried to get librarian who protested fired.

Her company (co-owned car wash) was SHUT DOWN by the state--after she became governor--for noncompliance and for not paying requisite fees...

Palin finagled $27 million in earmarks for Wasilla, population 6k. I love the smell of a reformer in the morning!

Palin slashed funding for programs for teen mothers who need a place to live!

Palin got her first passport in 2007. Said she traveled to Ireland, in addition to visiting the troops in Germany and Kuwait. Turns out Ireland was just to refuel. Truthiness!

And whoa! Check out this pic. That is not the cover headline they were hoping for, I bet!

The Palin Edition, part deux (plus a few choice tidbits)

Because Talking Points Memo rocks, they summarized all the developments with the Palin pick, and I reproduce it here, in full, for your reading pleasure:

The Palin Meltdown in Slo-Mo

By Greg Sargent - September 1, 2008, 6:20PM

On the same day that the Republicans were forced to dramatically cut back their convention activities, the Palin Meltdown unfolded with extraordinary speed. It's worth pondering the totality of what happened today, in a mere half day...

* The news that Palin once backed the Bridge to Nowhere went national.

* It emerged that Palin has links to the bizarro Alaska Independence Party, which harbors the goal of seceding from the union that McCain and Palin seek to lead.

[update: the AP confirms she was a member of this group
and a commenter to this blog points us to more information, including video of Palin addressing the AIP]

* The news broke that as governor, Palin relied on an earmark system she now opposes. Taken along with the Bridge to Nowhere stuff, this threatens to undercut her reformist image, something that was key to her selection as McCain's Veep candidate.

* The news broke that Palin's 17-year-old daughter became pregnant out of wedlock at a time when the conservative base had finally started rallying behind McCain's candidacy.

* Barely moments after McCain advisers put out word that McCain had known of Bristol Palin's pregnancy, the Anchorage Daily News revealed that Palin's own spokesperson hadn't known about it only two days ago.

* A senior McCain adviser at the Republican convention was forced into the rather embarrassing position of arguing that McCain had known about the pregnancy "last week" -- without saying what day last week he knew about it.

* It came out that Republican lawyers are up in Alaska vetting Palin -- now, more than 72 hours after it was announced that she'd been picked.

* Palin lawyered up in relation to the trooper-gate probe in Alaska -- a move that ensures far more serious attention to the story from the major news orgs.

What else will come out today? After all, there are still six hours left until September 2nd...

--------------
What else will come out today? Well, since that writing, it seems that the McCain campaign has hired Tucker Eskew, the lovely man who directed the 2004 smear against McCain, accusing him of having fathered an illegitimate black child...

Democratic women are not moving to McCain--pass it on! They do not like the Palin pick.

A successful convention. Obama's speech was watched by more than 40 million people; it was well received and he's seen a good response in the polls--not just on who people would pick, but also on his leadership and his favorables. These polls were taken post-Palin, so that's good news for us.

And here's good old Sarah, in all her glory--
She wants to know, "what does the VP do, anyway?"

She's a little confused about the pledge, "under God," and the founding fathers...

She laughs as radio talk host calls her political foe (who is also a cancer survivor) a "bitch" and a "cancer" who "needs to go away".

A last note: What I hope all of this makes clear is McCain's supremely poor judgment and his dangerous shoot-from-the-hip decisionmaking style. He did not fully vet this VP pick, and he expects us to believe he has the right experience and disposition for the presidency???

The Palin Edition

Some of you have written me to ask "WTF???"--or, more genteelly, to ask me what I think is going on with McCain's pick. I honestly have no idea. How you read it depends, in the end, on how smart (read: devious) you think the Rovian staffers running McCain's campaign are, how much control you think McCain has over his own campaign, how desperate you think he feels, and how much of a gambler you think he is.

Evil plot or impetuous hail mary pass?
I'm still trying to sort it out. It's been reported that Rove and McCain's staffers put the kibosh on McCain's preferred pick, Lieberman. It's also been reported that McCain has bowed to the advice of his handlers, in a significant break with his past behavior, now refusing to say much to reporters and being pretty "prickly" about it. Some analysts argue that the Palin pick shows McCain is desperate (and that his internal polling is giving him reason to be so). And we have heard about McCain's actual predilection for playing high-stakes craps, and for gambling. We know he only met her once in person before offering her the position, and that he made his decision after Bill and Hillary Clinton successfully brought together Democrats at the convention. But we also know that voters decide largely on emotional responses, not logical analysis, so we're cautioned to listen to the analysis of George Lakoff (who started us thinking about language and framing after Kerry's loss), which argues that Sarah Palin activates a whole lot of positive emotion in voters, no matter her stance on issues or her level of experience.

Plusses and minuses, and McCain's decision-making process.
One of the most balanced and rational commentaries I've seen is the response from a reporter from Anchorage, on the PBS Newshour (watch here). Many of the above indicators could sway you to believe that McCain is getting internal polling data that have convinced him that he needs to do something radical to shake up his campaign. And his pick will definitely solidify and energize his base, which can help him. It can also turn off women and independents, which can hurt him. This pick is not, foremost, about trying to sway Hillary holdouts. He may get a couple of votes from that group, but by and large Palin is too socially conservative and too inexperienced in comparison to Hillary to take Hillary's place. It does appear that Palin was not comprehensively vetted (an understatement, if there ever was one!). Her hometown paper's archives were not studied, and the McCain campaign did not know she originally supported the Bridge to Nowhere or that she supported a windfall tax on oil profits. Today, we learn that her 17 year old unmarried daughter is 5 months pregnant, and that her husband had a DUI. McCain's people might have known this, and decided to leak it when most of the country is watching Gustav. Who knows.

No matter what the rationale, or the way this plays out, here are some more substantive things you should know:

Dubious claims about reform. Palin is touting herself (and the brainless pundits and news-stenographers are happily parroting her claims) to be a reformer. She may be, to some extent. But two of her biggest claims are patently false:

1) She says she's against wasteful government spending and earmarks. USA Today reports:

While running for governor in 2006, though, Palin backed federal funding for the infamous [Bridge to Nowhere], which McCain helped make a symbol of pork barrel excess. And as mayor of the small town of Wasilla from 1996 to 2002, Palin also hired a Washington lobbying firm that helped secure $8 million in congressionally directed spending projects, known as earmarks...

Palin supported the so-called "Bridge to Nowhere" before it became clear the bridge was not going to happen and would be a political liability, at which time she dropped her support of it. The millions that were allocated to Alaska have not been returned to the federal treasury; she has kept them for "other projects" for the state.

2) She says she's a fierce anti-corruption reformer, taking on her party (read: Ted Stevens, the head of the Alaskan GOP, currently under indictment). While it does appear that she did create a lot of enemies among Republican in Alaska, Palin was not out to take down Ted Stevens--in fact, she was one of the directors of a 527 (independent campaign group) that was created to support Stevens.

In addition, she's under ethics investigation for potentially exercising inappropriate influence to get her former brother-in-law fired (shorthand in the media: "Troopergate") and her mayoralty was troubled by inappropriate firings there, as well. She should be deposed in the ethics case in September, with the verdict expected by early November.

Dubious definition of feminism. Although she belongs to a group called Feminists for Life, Palin is far to the right on many social issues, including abortion and contraception, than what is conventionally associated with feminism.

Palin has said that she'd oppose abortion in all cases including rape and incest, even for her daughter were her daughter to be raped.
Palin strongly supports abstinence-only education; on the 2006 gubernatorial questionnaire, she was asked the question:

"Will you support funding for abstinence-until-marriage education instead of for explicit sex-education programs, school-based clinics, and the distribution of contraceptives in schools?"

Her response: "Yes, the explicit sex-ed programs will not find my support."

There is some confusion as to where she stands on birth control. I read initially that she is opposed to birth control for married couples; other reporting states that she supports birth control.

And the apparently low levels of support from some of the people who know her.
Two Alaskan newspapers are doubtful about her capacity for the VP position...
Her mother in law doesn't know what she brings to McCain's campaign....
First-hand account of a resident of Wasilla, where Palin was mayor.

the oh-so-brief convention edition

I made the PROFOUND mistake of taping the convention on MSNBC the first two nights, and I missed all the good stuff last night. Tonight, I'm watching CSPAN, and I'm so much happier.

Check out the best quotes you missed if you didn't tune in last night, or if you weren't watching CSPAN.

It's not just your imagination: the news coverage of the convention has been horrible!

Also, a funny: here's video of some purported PUMA's, or Hillary holdouts---driving around Denver in a Humvee! Sorry, I just don't buy it. What Democrat is going to drive a Humvee around the convention????

And you can watch all the speeches here. If that doesn't work for you, then you can watch the speeches here on YouTube.

To soothe your nerves...

A lot of people are nervous about the tightening in the polls, and the mainstream media's inability to actually report on McCain's gaffes and horrible policies, instead focusing on the (non-existent) Clinton drama and the horserace.

So, today I bring you a few tidbits to calm your soul. I've been nervous myself, and have had to walk my way out of it. That's not to say this isn't a close race, or that we're out of the woods. That won't be the case until Nov. 5. So we must fortify ourselves..

First of all, let's examine who's been smart and who's been wrong. Smart? The Obama Campaign. They beat the Clinton establishment, and did so in a mostly graceful and positive. That positivity and vision is what drew all those new and disaffected people into the fold...remember that. And who's been wrong? The media/pundits. So when you get worried, realize that the mainstream media has been wrong, wrong, wrong...and when they haven't been wrong, they've been clueless. So if you must listen (as I must) to what they say, remember to take it with a grain of salt.

Here's what Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, has to say: they focus on demographic and registration data in the 18 battleground states, not the national polls. "The top-line [polling data] doesn't tell you anything."

Second, remember that campaigns are largely won on the ground. Donald Green, a political scientist, is an expert in voting behavior--his recent study shows that message can matter little, and that:

door-to-door canvassing produced an eight to ten percent increase in voter turnout. Leaflets and direct mail, on the other hand, yielded only one-half to one percent increases in most cases.

So Obama's people are smart, because they've invested a great deal of our donations in a spectacularly broad and deep ground organization. Here's more info on battleground spending, and on the disparity in the number of field offices between Obama and McCain. This also means that we have to register new voters, phonecall to identify potential volunteers, and help Get Out the Vote (GOTV)...if you want company doing any of these, let me know!

Third, the polls are based on outdated models of voter turnout. This is not 2000 and it's not 2004. The Dems have a significant advantage in how many people identify as Dems (party ID) particularly among young people, and in the number of new and switched registrations. Look at this, read it slow, and let it sink in:

the number of registered Democrats in party registration states has grown by nearly 700,000 since President George W. Bush was reelected in November 2004, while the total of registered Republicans has declined by almost 1 million.

Here is an example of a Pennsylvania poll that reads differently, once you "look inside" the crosstab data.

Fourth, most polls are not reliable. Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com has ranked the pollsters on the basis of their past accuracy--you can see that Gallup is WAY down on the list. Don't get too worked up over one poll or another, especially not the national polls--this is an electoral vote campaign, not a popular vote campaign. So don't let the polls psych you out.

Fifth: This is the beginning of the campaign, not the end. In the composite poll-of-polls, Obama has a slight lead that has held consistently over the past few months, and the real race will begin after the conventions--that's when we can start looking at the state by state polls, and seeing where we stand.

Sixth: There is no "Bradley Effect." Race certainly is playing a role in this election, but the primaries showed that the polls overwhelmingly underestimated Obama's win percentage, rather than overestimating it.

Finally: No one ever said this was going to be easy. Here's a little perspective from Eugene Robinson (one of the few relatively sensible talking heads):

People here complain that the polls are too close for comfort, forgetting that there is rarely anything comfortable about a presidential contest. When was the last time a nonincumbent Democrat cruised easily to the White House? Clinton, remember, won only a 43 percent plurality of the popular vote in 1992. You have to go all the way back to Franklin Roosevelt in 1932. Why would anyone think for a moment that Obama could win this without a fight?...

one...two...three...four...

As we await the VP selection, we've been treated to a little comedy (of errors?) by John McCain, who has just not had the best of days.

Today, in an interview, he stated that he doesn't know how many houses he owns...

That's right folks. He's just not sure.

When criticized by the Obama campaign for his obliviousness to his own wealth, and how that might affect his economic policy (remember Phil it's-just-a-"mental-recession" Gramm...and before that, John your-economic-problems-are-"psychological" McCain), McCain's campaign tried to deflect with the following responses: he's a POW! they're his wife's houses! and obama has a million dollar house and has been connected to tony rezko! They're even now saying that Rev. Wright is now "fair game." (hint: it's going to get ugly, folks.)

So...for your entertainment...check out what may be one of the best videos of this election (and it's only 1 minute long!)




And, for an extra treat, today's footage of Obama kicking a** and taking names...

We Are the Ones photoproject

This is very cool!

http://wearetheonesproject.com/

A photo project to document the diversity of support for Obama.

Obama's trip abroad, What liberal media?, Good campaign News

Obama's trip abroad, Berlin

Just a quick reminder: McCain, the RNC and Fox needled Obama about visiting the Middle East...do you think they now feel that was a good strategy?

Good overview of what made this trip successful: Obama's actually really smart.

• The Berlin speech can be seen here
• Great photo essay here.
• Way, way too cute! Little kids: "Just a moment, Obama is speaking"
  
• Short, moving essay about seeing American flags being waved in Berlin.
• Lame republican responses--McCain suggests that Obama shouldn't be making speeches on foreign soil, forgetting that he did so himself in Canada just a month ago; others complain that Obama should use the phrase "citizen of the world," even though it was used by Reagan and Kennedy (in his inaugural address) before...McCain also said Obama was wrong to cancel a visit to the troops in Rammstein--but it turns out that the Pentagon reversed their previous approval of the visit, and wouldn't allow Obama to visit.
  

Where is this liberal media I hear about??
CBS "edited" an interview between Katie Couric and John McCain, in which he made a serious mistake about the timeline (and causes) of the decline of violence in Iraq (watch the real footage, released later). McCain then tried to spin and lie his way out of it, claiming that the term "surge" does not refer to the jan '07 increase of 30k troops, but the broader strategy of the "counterinsurgency". He really thinks we are fools. Or thinks we won't notice that he's a fool: he also, in that same interview, claimed that Iraq was the first major military action since 9/11. What about Afghanistan???

McCain's "respectful" campaign: Timeless tidbits from this week

• McCain said that Obama would rather win an election than lose a war.
• McCain campaign suggests Obama is soft on genocide, in response to Obama's statement at the Holocaust Memorial

Good campaign news

• Analysis shows that it's not a "toss up" or "dead even" race
• Obama leads McCain by 43% with Hispanic voters!
• Obama's small donors--alone--outraise McCain
• From 50-state strategy to 50-state ad buy: Obama purchases $5million ad buy during the Olympics
• We caught up in DNC, House and Senate fundraising in June
• We've grown! 1.7 million new democrats since 2004.

Nas delivers 600k petition sigs to Fox, in protest of ongoing racism

wish i was near la jolla, ca

Device art gallery. La Jolla, California
Show: Fantastic
Contraption, opens July 19 (and runs through Sept. 2).

Wha? McCain leaks Obama's Iraq travel details...

Sources are reporting that McCain blithely spilled the beans about when Obama is going to Iraq...info that's kept under wraps for a reason.

"I believe that either today or tomorrow -- and I'm not privy to his
schedule -- Sen. Obama will be landing in Iraq with some other
senators" who make up a congressional delegation, McCain told a
campaign fund-raising luncheon.

howard dean, mccain--blech!, good news and bad media

Man, Howard Dean is great.
Watched Howard Dean talk to the Netroots Nation annual gathering last night, and read his interview with major lefty bloggers. Here's some links if you want to find out what he's been up to--launching the "Register for Change" campaign, building the Democratic Party...and it's working. Obama's opening 20 campaign offices in Virginia!

Man, John McCain is a tool.

• Asked if Obama is a socialist, McCain shrugs and says "I don't know."
• 10 flip-flops in 2 weeks (as of June 15--list needs updating!)
• Oh, here's an update: flipflop on Afghanistan...did anyone hear?
• In an interview with ABC News, when reminded that he has publicly admitted to not being expert on economic matters, McCain says "I never said that."
• Nice little video: McCain's YouTube Problem

This week's good news.

• $52 million raised in June by Obama; more than $20 million by DNC. Obama's second-best month of fundraising yet...take that, Wall Street Journal (reported earlier that Obama was expected only to raise $30 mill). Unbelievably, because of campaign finance law loopholes, we're still the underdog. Donate $5 or more, and you can win tix to the convention (or give them to me!)
• We are competitive in a whole lotta states--July 15: national and swing state poll roundup. Up 9% points in Oregon. Up by 2% in Nevada. Only down by 3% in North Carolina.
• And McCain's excitement deficit.

More Bad Media.
ABC/Washington Post withholds poll results that favor Obama

NYTimes: "Obama isn't closing the divide on race"--(didn't know that one person could be expected to do so!). Analysis suggests that he has a problem with white voters. But the Times' actual polling results do not bear this out, in fact, on some issues his favorability is higher than McCain's. Obama camp responds, and NYTimes Adam Nagourney tries to defend his sloppy work.

You may not have heard that McCain described the way that Social Security works "a disgrace." That's because the media was whupped up in a frenzy over Jesse Jackson talking about cutting Obama's "nuts" off. Besides the complete disregard for journalistic ethics (essentially "eavesdropping" on Jackson's conversation when he didn't know he was being recorded), the media has shown once again how they just can't focus on the important aspects of this presidential race.

what's making you happy?

Hi everyone! Here we go:

Happiness is: mounting evidence of the wisdom of pursuing the "50-state strategy": Obama is up 5 points in Montana!

Happiness is: documenting and disseminating the oh-so-long-and-ever-growing list of McCain flip-flops and "misstatements" (that means send this list around!)

Happiness is: Looking at Obama's numbers in key swing states. RNC to buy early ads, and we'll be able to study the impact and respond.

Happiness is: someone in the mainstream press finally starting to debunk the "McCain is a maverick" myth.

Happiness is: judges using Lewis Carroll to ridicule the logic of the Bush Administration on habeus corpus. Snark!

Happiness is learning that nearly 2/3 of the public fear McCain is likely to carry on Bush's policies.

Happiness is watching Joe Lieberman get his comeuppance. He's a drag on McCain chances...in CT!~Excellent news for those of us who shudder at the thought of a mccain/lieberman ticket.

FISA, Campaign Finance, Kicking Electoral Ass

Well, somehow, blessedly, I am no longer totally obsessed with minutely following every single political story. Yes, it's true: I haven't watched Countdown every night in the last two weeks. It's almost like a fever broke...

I know that you'll profess, publicly, to be happy that I've been able to resume a somewhat normal life...but secretly, you're a bit worried about what you might be missing. "Awww," you say, "but how am I going to get all those cool links and tidbits now?"

Well, I recommend checking in on DailyKos and HuffingtonPost whenever you need a fix.
Almost all they do there is talk politics. Like I have done for the last six months, as many of you know all too well.

I do, perhaps unsurprisingly, have a few opinions on recent developments. Here's what I think the big stories are (or should be), and my take on them.

1) Telecom Immunity/Warrantless wiretapping/FISA...and the upcoming "FISAbuster" (cute derivation of filibuster). This bill is terrible. It just passed the House, and few people have any real understanding why the Dems caved. Is is money from the telecom industry? Is it cover-your-ass action? And why won't Obama fight it harder? How will MoveOn try to hold him to his earlier promise to filibuster any such provision? These are the questions swirling in the air. (To get caught up: here's a good essay on why we care about FISA)

It's a classic case of the Repubs trying to paint anyone who refuses to participate in the gutting of our constitution as "soft on terror," and our going along with that framing. Obama should know that he could fight this one, teach the public what it's about...but he's backing away from it. All I can say is that, unfortunately, few people seem to really be talking about this, even though the campaigns to stop this probably-unconstitutional legislation have been going on for months. The one bit of good news is that Dodd, Feingold, Boxer and maybe a few others have promised to filibuster. Starting tonight.

If you want to take action, and I know you do, you can watch Feingold all explain this and call your senator. You can call Obama's campaign through MoveOn and urge him to fight. You can also "hang up on big telecom" by switching your phone service to Credo, a sub-company of Working Assets. I'm really thinking about doing it...does anyone have Sprint, the network Credo is carried on?

2. Dustup about campaign financing. McCain is trying to make a big hullabaloo about Obama "backing out of his promise" to accept public financing. First, that premise is inaccurate--Obama promised to try to come to an agreement with his opponent...and McCain has been gaming the public finance system for months, and has made his intention not to stick to the letter or the spirit of public financing clear through his own (probably illegal) actions. Second, McCain has done almost nothing to rein in his surrogates, his supporters, and those who would want to form 527s (altho there's nothing of Swift Boat proportions formed yet). He's not shown any strength in trying to actually organize a campaign funded only by the public financing system. But most importantly, the public financing system is broken and the so-called campaign finance reformers have gotten lost along the way. Kos writes about mainstream "reformers" attitudes toward ordinary people's involvement in political blogging, in a way that is highly illuminating; his further explanation of what's broken in campaign financing has helped me solidify my position that the important thing is that campaign contributions don't buy access. It was never simply about limiting money, but about limiting influence. McCain hardly has a leg to stand on, with the kinds of lobbyists he has on his staff, his close ties to Vicki Iseman--he's not actually interested in limiting influence, just in limiting his opponent's fundraising. And Obama's interested not only in raising money, but in getting people activated...and we can see how powerful such people-powered fundraising and involvement is.

3. How Obama is kicking electoral ass everywhere. I can't spend the time to reference all the polls, but let me sum up: two polls in the last week show Obama with a 12-15% lead over McCain. (you wouldn't know it if you watch the cable news...as they breathlessly try to convince themselves that the race is tied). Obama is tied with McCain in red, red, red Indiana. He's got a decent shot at pulling close in Georgia, due to the Bob Barr effect. Obama's got a huge lead in Oregon, in southern Florida, in Maine, and is well ahead in all the swing states, even Pennsylvania and Michigan. Obama has a 13-19 point lead among women, when Kerry led women by only 3. And these are just the highlights of the last two weeks.

All these polling figures have made so, so, so clear to me that all my (obsessively) close attention to the traditional media pundits during the primary was for naught. They are idiots. The conventional wisdom is simply wrong.

This doesn't mean we can rest easy: the fight against the Republicans will be tough, and we have to be sharp and stay on top of what's happening politically. But it does mean that I'm going to stop having palpitations and following every word said by the mainstream news and the punditocracy. David Broder, Chris Matthews, Adam Nagourney--they can all bite me.

I'll still follow the news online, and send you interesting bits. And I'll still encourage you all to organize, give money, and volunteer to make sure we win the White House back. You can host/attend Obama events through the Obama campaign or volunteer with MoveOn; you can give money to ActBlue, the DailyKos-endorsed candidates on ActBlue, MoveOn, the DNC, and, of course, the Obama campaign...

(oh yeah, and did i mention that the bush administration seems to be getting caught more and more often these days? that the GAO released a report showing the "surge" (can a surge last indefinitely) isn't working? that courts have restored habeus corpus to detainees, and ruled that one such detainee can't be classified as an enemy combatant? these are surely interesting times. but let's not forget ourselves: the mainstream media is only spending 2 minutes per week covering Iraq.)